Team Liquid - Disguised

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Team Liquid face off against Disguised in the LTA North 2025 Split 2. With Liquid riding high in the upper tiers and this being a best-of-three, the significance is pronounced as both playoff positioning and morale are at play. Liquid are heavy favorites with expectations to secure a clean victory, but every map—and how they win—is scrutinized given their ambitions, while Disguised are battling to find form amid a brutal schedule.

Team Form Overview

Team Liquid arrive in this spot with robust momentum: 4 wins from their last 5 games. Noteworthy victories include 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines over LYON and Shopify Rebellion, reflecting both consistency and dominance, albeit with a solitary stumble against Cloud9. They tend to close games out efficiently when ahead.

Disguised, conversely, are emerging from a tough patch—just 1 win in their last 5 (against Team Liquid—though that win was a single-game round robin, not Bo3 context). Losses against Dignitas, 100 Thieves, Shopify Rebellion, and Cloud9 indicate struggles adjusting to elite opposition both tactically and on macro levels.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

The last three months discloses a chasm in underlying metrics:

• Liquid boasts superior objective control, exemplified by first Baron/Dragon (48.1%/55.5% vs Disguised’s 18.2%/45.5%).
• Liquid’s gold per minute (GPM) sits high (1826), and their average gold difference at 15 (+419) signals cohesive early game agency. Disguised on the other hand, are -943 down by 15, usually fighting uphill.
• First Blood (55.5% TL vs 18.2% Disguised) and early kill metrics also overwhelmingly favor Liquid.
• K/D ratio is stark: Liquid at 1.79, Disguised a paltry 0.38—highlighting the expected kill dominance in rounds or maps Liquid win.
• Damage output and pace (Liquid’s 2613 dmg/m vs 2350 for Disguised, and higher kill per min) further underline the expectation that Liquid control the tempo.

No recent roster moves or meta-driven draft surprises for either team are recorded pre-match.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

All books treat Liquid as overpowering favorites, with outright match odds for Team Liquid at 1.05 (implied ~95%) and Disguised languishing at 7.5 (implied ~13%). Handicaps (-1.5 for Liquid: 1.30; Disguised +1.5: 3.2) and correct score (2:0 for Liquid at 1.3) reflect second-layer certainty.

Statistically, it’s hard—if not unjustifiable—to suggest Disguised as live dogs even on map level: their win probabilities (given map win rates, early control, and recent form) don’t validate the overlay/underdog fantasy suggested by even 7.5 odds. The -1.5 handicap actually feels correctly lined if not slightly juiced given Liquid’s elite close-outs; a sweep is far more likely than a 2-1. Likewise, under 2.5 maps at 1.25 offer minimal margin, correctly reflecting the expected 2-0.

First objective and first 10/15 kill markets also offer little in the way of mispricing, with Liquid’s >55% leads translating directly to low-yield lines.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, while Team Liquid’s statistical dominance is overwhelming and likely to play out as a sweep, the market leaves nothing to exploit—Liquid are lined prohibitively, and even alternate markets are efficient to the point where risk-adjusted return is too slim to classify as value. Liquid should comfortably win 2-0, but for bettors, this game is accurately priced across the board, so capital is best deployed elsewhere.

Written on May 4, 2025 3:50 PM