Nongshim RedForce - DN Freecs

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Nongshim RedForce vs. DN Freecs takes place in the LCK 2025 Rounds 1-2, a critical juncture as both teams battle for side selection and playoff seeding. Nongshim enter as solid favorites in a league where executional consistency determines survival, while DN Freecs look to avoid falling further behind at the season's midpoint.

Team Form Overview

Nongshim RedForce have gone 3-2 over their last five, picking up convincing wins over Dplus KIA (2-1), KT Rolster (2-0), and FearX (2-0). Their only recent setbacks were against powerhouse Hanwha Life Esports (0-2) and T1 Esports (1-2). Importantly, four series wins have been by sweep or distinguished by strong early-game play, signaling improved coordination.

DN Freecs, by sharp contrast, are stuck in a major slump. They have lost five straight, dropping series to T1 Esports (0-2), FearX (1-2), Gen.G (0-2), KT Rolster (0-2), and Dplus KIA (0-2). They are struggling against playoff-level squads, regularly getting outclassed both early and late.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Early Game Control & Snowball Potential

• First Baron Rate: Nongshim RedForce lead by a landslide (64.7% vs. 20.0%).
• Gold Diff at 15 minutes: Huge edge to Nongshim (+169) versus DN Freecs (-731), indicating vastly superior early-game plans and quicker times to first power spikes.
• First Blood Rate: Nongshim again ahead (55.9% vs. 35.0%).
• First10/15 Kills Rate: Nongshim secure the first 10 kills in 55.9% of games (DN Freecs a mere 15%).

Teamfighting, Late Game, Damage

• Kills/Deaths Ratio: Nongshim: 2.03, DN Freecs: 0.67 – clear disparity in skirmishing efficiency.
• Champion Damage: Slight advantage Nongshim (2641 vs. 2326 per minute).

Objective Play

• Nongshim are simply world’s apart from DN Freecs in first baron, with a better presence for first blood and upward-trending team stats.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Markets show Nongshim at short 1.20 to win; fair but perhaps slightly undervalued. The -1.5 Map Handicap on Nongshim at odds of 1.78 offers potential value given both form and underlying stats.

• Nongshim’s series have been clear cut wins against teams at DN Freecs’ level; three of the last five were clean 2-0s. Conversely, DN Freecs have failed to even take a map in all but one of their last five LCK matches.
• Bookies may underestimate freefall teams late in a split; we’re likely closer to a real 72-75% implied probability on a 2-0 for Nongshim (fair odds closer to 1.40) than the lengthier line of 1.78.
• All early objective markets, kill races, and map-by-map offerings could appear viable, but the juice on Nongshim’s side suppresses any strong edge unless parlayed. Focus remains on the series spread for best value.

Final Thoughts

This is your classic mismatch: form points sharply to Nongshim RedForce, key team stats reinforce the projected gap, and recent LCK context suggests DN Freecs will struggle to keep pace early or late. The best risk-adjusted position is to back Nongshim -1.5 maps at 1.78, exploiting market mispricing based on DN Freecs' inflated resistance, which has not been visible on the rift in recent weeks.

Consider limiting exposure on prop/kill race markets due to possible blowouts or Nongshim’s tendency (like most favorites in this matchup tier) to play slower-tempo Game 2s. All evidence points to straight 2-0, but as always with LCK, moderate bet sizing to account for unpredictabilities (sleeper drafts, random upsets).

Written on May 8, 2025 8:52 AM