Cloud9 - Team Liquid

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Cloud9 versus Team Liquid in the LTA North 2025 Split 2 is a marquee matchup with major playoff seeding implications. Both rosters are perennial North American heavyweights, often setting the tone for the region's meta, so a victory brings not only circuit points but also potential psychological edges en route to the upper-bracket.

Team Form Overview

Cloud9 enters the match red-hot, stacking five consecutive victories in all competitions. Their recent victims include new contenders like Disguised and FlyQuest as well as Team Liquid themselves (1–0 head-to-head on April 19th). Expectedly, their map control, macro reads, and tempo have all looked well-drilled, with swift 2-0 wins suggesting minimal wasted moves.

Team Liquid comes in with a recent 4–1, their only slip a tight series to Disguised on April 21. Since then, they rebounded, sweeping LYON and Disguised in fashion. The lone head-to-head this split favored Cloud9, but consistently clean results show Liquid are trending upward based on tighter objective control and improved mid-late game coordination.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

| | Cloud9 | Team Liquid | |--------------------|------------------|------------------| | First Baron Rate | 55.6% | 45% | | First Dragon Rate | 44.4% | 55% | | Gold Diff @ 15 | +1349.9 | +488.9 | | 1st Blood Rate | 77.8% | 70% | | 1st 10 Kills Rate | 77.8% | 55% | | Kills/Death | 3.37 | 2.23 | | Champions Damage | 2,705 | 2,478 |

Cloud9 maintains dominant early-game leads (gold plus significant kill advantages), owning nearly 80% rates for First Blood and First 10/15 Kills while holding opponents to modest comebacks. Their 3.37 K/D and 1,350 average gold diff at 15 underscores snowbally, high-pressure laning and sharp macro preparation.

Team Liquid telegraphs a slightly slower pace, focusing early drakes but less forceful in snowballing lanes, reflected in lower kills per minute (0.43) and weaker K/D stats. Their dragon focus creates scaling opportunities, but their otherwise middling First Baron and First Kills numbers point to greater volatility against rip-and-run teams like C9.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

The outright price for Cloud9 at 1.65 (~61% implied) feels undervalued relative to their 3-month statistical dominion and perfect recent form (including a clean head-to-head win versus TL). Realistically, their combined first blood and first 10/15 kill rates suggest early leads convert at a rate north of 68-70% in current meta NA play. Liquid supporters must believe in significant adaptation and Cloud9's overperformance regressing, for which the data doesn't yet reinforce.

The Cloud9 (-1.5) handicap slip at 2.9 (implied ~34.5%) immediately stands out – C9 has shown repeated ability to cleanly sweep best-ofs when ahead, and Liquid tends to lose hard when out-measured in the early game, as their K/D spread and moderate defensive stats highlight. If Cloud9 retains their assertive tempo, a swift 2-0 is distinctly live.

Auxiliary markets like First Blood, 1st to X Kills, and 1st Baron are all fairly juiced, hovering close to C9's implied stats (mid 1.7s to low 1.8s), so the relative value is rare unless correlated combos are placed.

Totals (Over/Under 2.5 maps at 1.85 each way) also see modest value for Under, aligning with both squads' 2-0/hard-snowball track record this split and the likelihood that an early lead snowballs into a map win for either team.

Final Thoughts

Cloud9 enters this LTA North 2025 Split 2 grudge match with superior stats, a clean recent series vs. Liquid, and remarkable early/mid pressure. Probability edges for their ML and especially the -1.5 map handicap highlight clear quantitative inefficiency in the market. If current form maintains, these lines should shortly tighten given structural strengths in C9’s game plan versus how Team Liquid approaches their drafts and pace.

Back C9 at these prices with confidence – unless news emerges of late roster swaps or health issues pre-game.

Written on May 8, 2025 8:59 AM