LYON - Disguised

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

LYON vs Disguised is slated for May 11, 2025, in the LTA North 2025 Split 2. Both squads enter with middling form in what is shaping up to be a critical match—with playoff seeding implications firmly in play. Each team desperately needs points to gain momentum and avoid sinking in the standings. There is no fresh context of significant roster changes ahead of this fixture.

Team Form Overview

LYON comes into this with a string of tough losses.

• Lost to Cloud9 (1-2, 2025-05-04)
• Lost to Team Liquid (0-2, 2025-04-26)
• Lost to Cloud9 again (0-1, 2025-04-21)
• Lost to 100 Thieves (0-1, 2025-04-20)
• Lost to FlyQuest (0-1, 2025-04-19)

They have not secured a win in their last 5 games, but they at least took a map off Cloud9 more recently.

Disguised also struggled recently:

• Lost to Team Liquid (0-2, 2025-05-03)
• Lost to Cloud9 (0-2, 2025-04-27)
• Narrow win over Team Liquid (1-0, 2025-04-21)
• Lost to Dignitas (0-1, 2025-04-20)
• Lost to Shopify Rebellion (0-1, 2025-04-19)

Disguised's only recent win was a single-map victory against Team Liquid. Both sit at the lower end of current league performance, although LYON has shown moments of contest--notably stretching Cloud9.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

• Objective Start:
  • LYON has an edge in First Blood Rate (58% vs 0%) and First Baron Rate (33% vs 27%).
  • LYON also claims First 5 Kills, 10 Kills, and 15 Kills more frequently than Disguised, though both are below 50% for 10/15 Kills.
• Tempo & Gold:
  • LYON averages +133 GPM over Disguised (1805 vs 1672).
  • Both lag in early gold diff at 15, but Disguised's -1555 is far worse than LYON's -644. This signals Disguised is heaviest in deficit more often than LYON.
• Core Metrics:
  • LYON has almost 1.5 kills per death, while Disguised sits at a very low 0.38—a massive gulf suggesting consistently wider losing margins for Disguised.
  • DMG per minute and objective stats further underscore LYON's efficiency edge. Their champion damage output is superior (2458 to 2293).

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Bookmakers have priced LYON strongly as the favorite. Odds on major markets:

• Match Winner: LYON (1.28), Disguised (3.3). This gives LYON ~78% implied odds, Disguised ~30%.
• Handicap: LYON -1.5 at 1.92; Disguised +1.5 at 1.78.
• Correct Score 2-0 for LYON is 1.92; Over 2.5 maps is 2.15.

On analysis, while the matchup stats make LYON clear favorites—especially on kills/death ratio and overall game metrics—even in their cold run, Disguised post extremely unfavorable stats and rarely even reach parity in the early or late macro functions.

The pricing accurately reflects the gap. There’s a theoretical argument for -1.5 LYON at 1.92, but no statistical indicator shows Disguised performing at a level to recommend plus-side map handicaps with confidence. In a vacuum, correct score 2-0 also closely aligns with the true probabilistic outlook—for value, the odds are marginal at best. Unless there’s last-minute news of a roster juggle or illness, this is an efficient market.

Final Thoughts

No major value on any market as probability mirrors the data advantage for LYON. All match, kill, and map props hover where they should—given current form and stat lines. LYON’s likely dominance is known, and best rewards lie simply in including their win in parlays—not as an outlier single spot. No value premium exists on the major lines.

Written on May 10, 2025 3:58 PM