100 Thieves - Shopify Rebellion

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

This LTA North 2025 Split 2 fixture features 100 Thieves against Shopify Rebellion. Positioned in the midseason stage of a key North American league, both teams are battling for playoff seeding. 100 Thieves had recently been pegged as a favorite after strong results in April, while Shopify Rebellion are aiming to avoid the bottom of the standings after mixed performances.

Team Form Overview

100 Thieves

• 4 wins, 1 loss in their last 5 (W vs Shopify, LYON, Dignitas, Disguised; only loss to FlyQuest, 0-2)
• Wins are mostly clean, with map sweeps or clear advantages.
• Victory against Shopify Rebellion just 3 weeks prior (1-0) signals matchup comfort.

Shopify Rebellion

• Form: 1 win, 4 losses in their last 5.
• Losses to FlyQuest, Dignitas, Team Liquid—all top-half contenders—and only one win against Disguised (bottom-table team).
• Lost to 100 Thieves in April in a broadly one-sided contest.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Over the last 3 months:

• 100 Thieves have been top-2 in gold per minute (1829.7), with a small but nearly balanced gold diff at 15 (-30) suggesting steady early pace against mid-tier competition.
  • They post a much higher first dragon (77.8%) and first baron (66.7%) rate compared to Shopify (first dragon only 23%; first baron 46%).
  • Their kill participation (0.41 per minute; 1.37 K/D ratio) and newer high damage metrics (2915 DMG/m) highlight decisive midgame scenarios.
  • However, low first blood (44.4%) and first 15 kills (11.1%) suggest a more controlled or reactive approach early on.
• Shopify Rebellion are well behind in macro:
  • Weak early game: gold diff at 15 at -178 and much worse objective control.
  • Kill participation and ratio essentially identical (0.30; 1.37), despite facing less favorable environments.
  • Lower champion damage, objective control, and tempo throughout games.

Recent head-to-head data reinforces that 100 Thieves reliably suppress Shopify’s threat, particularly around neutral objectives.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner (100 Thieves @ 1.2)

• This pricing translates to around 83% implied probability. Given their performance edge and recent direct results, this appears about fair—little value unless used as parlay filler.

Handicap (100 Thieves -1.5 @ 1.75)

• Implied probability is ~57%. Given their typical historical win conditions and Shopify’s collapsing early game (bleeding dragons and barons), a 2-0 sweep is the expected outcome in the best-of-three format. Shopify’s track record versus strong favorites makes this margin reasonable; this line projects mild value if you rate Shopify’s upset wings so low.

Correct Score ‘2:0’ (1.75)

• Mirrors the logic above. Since nearly all of Shopify’s worst games result in straight losses, this is a corollary bet that offers decent reward for the associated risk.

Map Specials

• Shopify Rebellion (+1.5 maps @ 1.95) could offer value only if you believe 100 Thieves are due for stumble—a scenario not backed by stats, recent form, or head-to-head data. Same with Shopify ML (4.00), which is too short for a realistic coinflip upset.
• Early objective props (1st Baron, 1st Inhibitor, 10th/15th/20th/30th Kill markets) all strongly favor 100 Thieves and are thus priced excruciatingly short—in most cases, below statistical edge. These are not attractive as singles.

Final Thoughts

100 Thieves remain a tier above Shopify Rebellion both on the scoreboard and at a stats level—especially in map control, damage throughput, and recent results. Bookmakers have shaped odds closely around the model, but the -1.5 handicap line (1.75) is supported both by result probability and matchup trends. Leverage value exists primarily on the sweep, given the small implied gap for 2-0 versus shop-worn outright market lines and recent matchup reality. However, all other risk-angled bets on Shopify are poor speculation.

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Written on May 8, 2025 8:59 AM