Leviatán - Keyd Stars

Analysis and statistics

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Match Context & Stakes

This Saturday saws an anticipated clash between Leviatán and Keyd Stars in the ongoing LTA South 2025 Split 2 League of Legends season. Both teams are fighting to solidify their positions in the playoff race, with every match now carrying significant implications for seeding and momentum heading into the deeper stages of the split.

Team Form Overview

Leviatán Recent Form:

• 1W-3L in recent games (incl. losses to paiN, LOUD, but a key win over Isurus Estral)
• Their only recent win was a 1-0 over Isurus Estral; otherwise, they fell in convincing fashion with no maps taken against top teams.

Keyd Stars Recent Form:

• 3W-2L across their last five fixtures
• Solid 2-0 win over Isurus Estral, a stumble versus paiN Gaming, and mixed results otherwise, including a notable 0-1 loss to upcoming opponents Leviatán.

Keyd Stars‟ recent double over Isurus Estral and better map results suggest superior current form; Leviatán’s single map win against Keyd does offer a mild upset data point.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Leviatán (Last 3 months):

• First Blood: 55.6% (top-tier early proactivity but low conversion)
• Gold Diff @15: -518 (prone to early-game deficits)
• Kills Over Death: 1.18 (shows issues keeping death count low)
• First Dragon/Baron: 33.3%/44.4%
• Damage/Minute: 2052

Keyd Stars (Last 3 months):

• First Dragon: 55.6% (+22pp over Leviatán)
• First Baron: 55.6%
• Gold Diff @15: +148 (good starts)
• First 10/15 Kills: 66.7%/55.6%
• Kills Over Death: 1.60 (30+% efficiency edge over Leviatán)
• Damage/Minute: 2688 (far out-damaging Leviatán)

Keyd Stars hold substantial edges in every key quantitative stat except First Blood, where Leviatán are marginally ahead. Keyd’s better kill conversion rates and early leads evidence a more cohesive mid/lategame structure and superior macro play.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Moneyline (Match Winner):

• Keyd Stars at 1.5 (implied ~67%) is very efficient for a team strongly ahead statistically and form-wise.
• Leviatán at 2.4 (implied ~42%) is arguably short given their severe stat and form disadvantages—marked as a heavy underdog for good reason.

Handicaps:

• Leviatán (+1.5 at 1.48): Won a map before, but their overall low kill/death efficiency and inferior objective stats make taking more than one map unlikely.
• Keyd Stars (-1.5) at 2.5: Attractive, but prior head-to-head saw Keyd drop a map. Likely tempers major handicap value.

Totals & Correct Score:

• Over 2.5 Maps trends near 50% (odds 1.9) is reasonable based on H2H, but the stats give more likelihood to a 2-0 (in Keyd's favor). "Keyd Stars 2:0 @ 2.5" is slim value for a confident favorite with big stat advantage, but not outlier value.

Other Props:

• First Blood/First Baron mark Keyd as modest favorites but with narrow true margin. Despite pricing, the variance in Leviatán's first blood means the 1.9/1.8 split is fair, showing no exploitable error.
• First 10/15 Kills and objective markets gravitate around Keyd, but the price edges (<2.2) are not misaligned.

Final Thoughts

Market is sharp to Keyd Stars‘ edge – and odds efficiently price Leviatán’s slim upset factor but don't overrate them. Given the visible gap in kills/death, gold diff, and objective stats, Keyd are aptly positioned as strong favorites, albeit with a fractional edge for the correct score (2:0 at 2.5). Caution remains, as Leviatán recently took a map, showing the risk of the -1.5 handicaps.

No high-confidence simple value; the only small edge is dabbling on the 2-0 correct score favoring Keyd Stars.

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Written on May 8, 2025 8:57 AM