Cloud9 - LYON

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Cloud9 vs LYON takes place in the LTA North 2025 Split 2, a high-stakes match-up with significant implications for group standings. Cloud9 is a North American powerhouse with aspirations for regional dominance and international berth, while LYON aim to play spoiler and strengthen their credentials.

Team Form Overview

Cloud9: Over the last 5 matches, Cloud9 are in imperious form. They have dispatched Disguised, Dignitas, Team Liquid, and FlyQuest all in swift BO1 victories, demonstrating not only consistency but domination over playoff-quality opponents.

LYON: LYON's recent form is starkly different, having been beaten by Cloud9 just two weeks ago, in addition to back-to-back losses against regional rivals 100 Thieves, Team Liquid, and FlyQuest. Their last CLG series was a single-map loss, further casting doubt on their ability to challenge upper-table teams.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Examining the past three months of statistics creates an enormous gulf between these teams:

| | Cloud9 | LYON | |:-------------:|:--------------:|:--------------:| | First Baron | 61.5% | 36.4% | | First Dragon | 61.5% | 45.5% | | First Blood | 76.9% | 63.6% | | 10 Kills First| 76.9% | 36.4% | | Gold/min | 1937 | 1803 | | Gold diff @15 | +1224 | -648 | | Kills/Death | 2.77 | 1.58 | | Kills/min | 0.49 | 0.35 |

Cloud9 not only dominate early with strong gold leads at 15 and superior first-objective rates, but also convert leads efficiently (K/D over 2.7 vs LYON's 1.58). Importantly, Cloud9 average over 130 more gold/minute, often deadlier by the midpoint, and close out fast.

LYON's high first blood rate for a bottom-table team hints at volatility, not reliability: their snowball conversions are weak and consistently turn gold deficits versus top teams.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Moneyline & Handicap: The outright markets are highly efficient; Cloud9's 1.08 and LYON's 6.3 imply 93%/16%. The -1.5 map handicap (Cloud9 1.4) is fair. LYON have not improved or upset a strong team—there's no statistical edge for an underdog miracle.

Correct Score: 2:0 Cloud9 at 1.4 is well-priced. Given Cloud9's steamroller matchups and LYON's inability to take games off playoff teams, value is marginal unless you rate upsets substantially more than data:

Early Objectives/Prop Bets: First blood: Cloud9 sits at 1.65 for map 1 first blood (60-75% rate) and a statistical expectation between 60-80% on early kills and baron. But implied odds (1.65 = ~60.6%) match expectations; not exploitable.

Turrets, kills, and duration: All markets suggest a quick C9 win and low-resistance maps. Over/Under handicaps, kill props, and map duration lines are mostly accurately modeled to past blowouts. Even Cloud9 (-9.5) or (-10.5) in kills handicap at 1.78-2.1 is marginal, but not strong enough given that variance increases if one map is more competitive.

Final Thoughts

Every historical and present indicator points towards another clean Cloud9 sweep. Markets have well-priced all Cloud9-leaning handicaps, and there is no substantive inefficiency or value for the underdog—odds properly discount upset chances by LYON. The safest outlook is that the pricing aligns closely to objective win probabilities, offering no sharp value in any direction based on orbital data and current form.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:12 PM