FlyQuest - Shopify Rebellion

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

On May 3, 2025, FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion will clash in the LTA North 2025 Split 2. This best-of-three series is pivotal for both teams as they vie for a strong position in the tournament standings. FlyQuest aims to maintain their dominance, while Shopify Rebellion seeks to overturn previous defeats and gain momentum.

Team Form Overview

FlyQuest:

FlyQuest has demonstrated consistent performance in their recent matches:

• April 26, 2025: Defeated 100 Thieves 2-0.
• April 21, 2025: Overcame Dignitas 1-0.
• April 19, 2025: Secured a 1-0 victory against LYON.
• April 13, 2025: Triumphed over Shopify Rebellion 1-0.

Their only recent setback was a 0-1 loss to Cloud9 on April 20, 2025. Overall, FlyQuest's form is strong, with four wins in their last five outings.

Shopify Rebellion:

Shopify Rebellion's recent form has been less favorable:

• April 21, 2025: Lost 0-1 to 100 Thieves.
• April 20, 2025: Defeated by Team Liquid 0-1.
• April 19, 2025: Achieved a 1-0 win against Disguised.
• April 13, 2025: Fell to FlyQuest 0-1.
• April 12, 2025: Lost 0-1 to LYON.

With one win and four losses in their last five matches, Shopify Rebellion faces challenges in regaining competitive form.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

FlyQuest:

• First Baron Rate: 55.56%
• First Dragon Rate: 38.89%
• Gold Per Minute: 1902.93
• Gold Difference at 15 Minutes: +600.94
• First Blood Rate: 55.56%
• First 5 Kills Rate: 61.11%
• First 10 Kills Rate: 50.00%
• First 15 Kills Rate: 66.67%
• Kills Per Minute: 0.535
• Kill/Death Ratio: 2.445
• Champion Damage Per Minute: 2887.53

Shopify Rebellion:

• First Baron Rate: 30.00%
• First Dragon Rate: 20.00%
• Gold Per Minute: 1704.66
• Gold Difference at 15 Minutes: -561.80
• First Blood Rate: 30.00%
• First 5 Kills Rate: 40.00%
• First 10 Kills Rate: 30.00%
• First 15 Kills Rate: 30.00%
• Kills Per Minute: 0.295
• Kill/Death Ratio: 1.227
• Champion Damage Per Minute: 2380.76

FlyQuest holds a statistical advantage across key metrics, including early-game objectives, gold accumulation, and kill efficiency. Their superior early-game performance is highlighted by a significant gold lead at 15 minutes and higher rates in securing first objectives.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner - Twoway:

• FlyQuest: 1.03
• Shopify Rebellion: 9.00

The odds heavily favor FlyQuest, reflecting their recent dominance and statistical superiority. However, the low return on a FlyQuest win offers minimal value.

Map Handicap:

• FlyQuest (-1.5): 1.25
• Shopify Rebellion (+1.5): 3.50

Given FlyQuest's recent 2-0 victory over Shopify Rebellion and their consistent performance, the -1.5 map handicap at 1.25 presents a reasonable expectation but limited value.

Total Maps:

• Under 2.5: 1.22
• Over 2.5: 3.80

Considering FlyQuest's tendency to secure clean victories, betting on under 2.5 maps aligns with expectations but offers modest returns.

Correct Score:

• 2:0: 1.25
• 2:1: 4.80
• 1:2: 10.00
• 0:2: 11.00

The 2:0 scoreline for FlyQuest is the most probable outcome, yet the odds reflect this, providing limited betting value.

Final Thoughts

FlyQuest's recent form and statistical advantages position them as clear favorites against Shopify Rebellion. While the betting markets reflect this dominance, the odds offer limited value for standard outcomes. Bettors seeking higher returns might consider exploring specific prop bets or alternative markets where potential value could be found, though such opportunities appear scarce given the current odds landscape.

Written on May 4, 2025 3:50 PM