100 Thieves - Dignitas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

100 Thieves vs Dignitas is a key best-of-3 fixture in the LTA North 2025 Split 2. Both rosters are jostling for critical standings as the regular season approaches its midpoint. For 100 Thieves, every win keeps them in direct playoff contention; Dignitas, on the other hand, look to prove they're more than just dark-horse spoilers. The stakes today are all about building playoff momentum—and opening map win disparities may offer pivotal implications for later rounds.

Team Form Overview

100 Thieves are 4-1 in their last five matches, including a convincing victory over Dignitas (2-0 on April 19). The loss came versus FlyQuest, a tier-one contender. Their other wins (vs Shopify Rebellion, LYON, Disguised) indicate strong consistency against mid-table or rebuilding teams.

Dignitas are 2-3 in their last five games. They managed victories over Disguised (new roster) and Shopify Rebellion but fell to Cloud9, FlyQuest, and notably 100 Thieves themselves. Worth noting, their matches won were close, and their defeats usually showed larger early and mid-game deficits than the scoreboard alone implies. This situational inconsistency continues to plague Dignitas against more disciplined sides like 100T.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

On the stats:

• 100 Thieves have a strong objective control edge: 64.7% first Baron (vs Dignitas' 21.4%), solid though not elite 52.9% first blood, and positive first 10 kill rates (near 59%). Their kills per minute is superior (0.454 to 0.352), as are they in gold per minute (~88 higher), suggesting both tempo and macro execution advantages.
• The only major deficit for 100T is early-game gold (-376 GD@15, slightly worse than Dignitas at -283), but 100T's Baron and late-objective play clearly shore up this weak phase.
• Dignitas outperform their expectation in single-target efficiency hinges (kills/deaths ratio 1.55 to 1.27) but lag in objective control and kill acceleration, limiting upset probability. Their lowest-in-class first Baron percentage stands out as a huge issue, particularly as denying late objectives has repeatedly been their undoing versus top sides.
• With a previous 0-2 loss to 100T last month, the trends suggest difficult adaptation for DIG here.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Match Winner Odds: 100 Thieves are massive favorites at 1.12 (effective implied prob ~89%), Dignitas at 5.3 (~19%). Statistical analysis shows 100T have almost a 75-80% win chance over three maps, so 1.12 offers no value—but nor does 5.3 on DIG without a credible upset trigger.
• Map Handicap (-1.5): 100 Thieves are just 1.52 (65.8% implied) to 2-0 Dignitas, yet in their recent forms and head-to-head, 100T's clean sweeps and DIG's inability to win vs disciplined macro squads supports a 70-75% probability here. Edge: modest, for a multi combo, but not enough edge for safe single stake.
• Over 2.5 Maps: Set at 2.7 (37% implied), but stats theme toward a 2-0—so under 2.5 at 1.4 (71.4% implied) lacks value as well given book pricing.
• Prop markets:
  • First Baron/First Blood: First Baron rates (100T avg 64.7% vs 21.4%) do provide a smaller odds edge. See map-by-map pricing at 1.38; if these rates stay constant, true odds are in the 1.25-1.30 range, but with limited ROI at current price.
  • "Dignitas Win at Least One Map" / Map Correct Score 2:1 is posted at 3.5; Dignitas projects <30% live win probability per map, so you'd want at least 4.0 before seeing value in them taking a single map.

Final Thoughts

There is no sharp situational value on outright markets with books well aware of 100T's edge (particularly after the last h2h and objective control differentials). Slightest value may exist on exotic props like 100T -1.5 maps or first Baron with correlated macro trends, but lines are set closely to statistical expectations. No clear mispricing or value stands out for disciplined, EV+ single bets. Best to pass this slate or use as parlay anchor if compelled.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:12 PM