Talon Esports - SoftBank Hawks Gaming

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The LCP 2025 Mid Season is at a pivotal juncture, with Talon Esports clashing against SoftBank Hawks Gaming. Both teams are fighting to prove themselves in a fiercely competitive regional field. For Talon, every match is crucial to consolidate their upper standing and confidence after a recent upset; for SoftBank Hawks, the match is about finding footing in a season where upsets are needed to reignite hope.

Team Form Overview

Talon Esports has demonstrated patches of dominance mixed with inconsistencies. Across their last 5 matches, they have 2 losses (0-2 versus both Team Secret Whales and CTBC Flying Oyster) but have shown capability (sweeping Chiefs ESC 2-0). While the latest result was a clean 0-2 loss, the context implies Talon is still operating at a distinctly higher level than most LCP teams but struggling against the very top tier.

SoftBank Hawks Gaming have had a disappointing run in the same span. Their most recent matches include 0-2 losses to both GAM Esports and MGN Vikings Esports. They've failed to pick up a single map in their last two fixtures and have continually struggled to contest against the top half of the table, indicating significant struggles around rotations, macro play, and early-game setup.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Talon Esports (Last 3 Months):

• First Dragon Rate: 71.43%, one of the region's best, confirming strong early-game objective control.
• First Blood Rate: 71.43%, highlighting consistently aggressive openers.
• Gold Per Minute: 1767, solid but average gold diff at 15 is -768, suggesting some volatility and liability to fall behind early—but they reliably convert kills (K/D: 1.38).
• Champion Damage: 2640, competitive offensive numbers.

SoftBank Hawks Gaming (Last 3 Months):

• First Baron & First Dragon: 0% and 25% respectively—objectively disastrous for setting up or contesting major objectives.
• Gold Diff at 15: -2636, indicating attempts to contest lanes too early and failing.
• K/D Ratio: 0.32, the lowest range and worrying from both a map control and mid-game power standpoint.
• First 10/15 Kills: 0%, underscoring consistently being outpaced during transitional periods of the game.

At every quantitative marker, Talon outclass Hawks Gaming, especially around objective control, kills, and sustained mid/late-game pressure.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

The markets are strongly skewed in favor of Talon, with matchwinner odds at 1.03 (implied ~97.1% win probability). Map odds are even more lopsided. Given Talon's overall statistical edge and SoftBank's failure to be competitive in their primary market metrics, these short odds are justified. Talon’s only weakness—early gold control—does not seem exploitable by Hawks, who post even worse early-game stats.

While SoftBank Hawks have longshot odds (9.0 to win match), their metrics and form utterly fail to justify even smallified upset probabilities—the true price here likely should be in the double digits based on the body of evidence.

No handicap or alternative prop market is offered here, further reducing space for manufactured edges.

Final Thoughts

The probability and form gap is overwhelming—statistically and contextually there is no value to be had. SoftBank Hawks' odds seem big, but given current form and evidence, even longer odds would be justifiable. Talon's moneyline is utterly unplayable at 1.03.

No value bets are available. For entertainment only, Talon in any outright market is safe for accumulator purposes, but true single-sided value does not exist in these markets as currently priced.

Written on May 8, 2025 8:58 AM