Ultra Prime - Oh My God

Analysis and statistics

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Match Context & Stakes

On May 4th, Ultra Prime face Oh My God in the LPL 2025 Split 2—an early regular split fixture, but one that could set momentum and shape the lower-mid table battle for playoff seeds. Both teams appear likely outside title candidacy but remain in striking distance for a postseason berth, making every map critical in this ultra-competitive league environment.

Team Form Overview

Ultra Prime have split the last five series at 2-3. They grabbed narrow 2-1 wins against EDward Gaming and Royal Never Give Up—both solid scalps for confidence—though also logged tight losses versus LNG Esports, Team WE, and FunPlus Phoenix. Crucially, their matches have been competitive with narrow scorelines, suggesting a team that can both win close affairs and, occasionally, lack knockout power.

Oh My God (OMG) enter with a concerning five-match sample: 1-4, including recent losses to LNG Esports, EDward Gaming, and LGD Gaming plus a tough L to Top Esports. Their single win came in placements—a 1-0 over FunPlus Phoenix—underlining ongoing struggle as underdogs and limited success against mid-table opposition.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

From the last three months:

• Ultra Prime:

  • Gold per minute: 1,771.8 (solid, but not elite)
  • Kills/minute: 0.38
  • K/D ratio: 2.29 (very strong)
  • DPM: 2,380
  • 0% first objectives—for first Baron, Dragon, Blood, and early kills (likely limited matches in stat sample with poor early-game win rates)

• Oh My God:

  • Gold per minute: 1,773.4 (comparable to UP)
  • Kills/minute: 0.36
  • K/D ratio: 0.85 (concerning, below 1 means more deaths than kills—implies poor teamfighting/skirmish execution)
  • DPM: 2,366
  • Also 0% for all early objective metrics

Interpretation:

• Gold and damage are even.
• Big gap on kills/deaths: Ultra Prime convert kills at a much more efficient rate (more than double deaths), OMG do not. This historically translates to much stronger map control late and better closeout potential.
• Neither side can string together first-bloods, dragons, or barons—indicating poor early fundamentals or a transition phase in both rosters (which aligns with low set win rates recently).

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

1. Match Winner - Twoway

• Ultra Prime @1.48 (implied ~67% win chance)
• OMG @2.5 (implied ~40%)

Given recent form, OMG have lost four straight and look objectively weaker. Ultra Prime might not be elite but their kill/death superiority is stark. At 1.48, the edge feels slight but merited—Ultra Prime's true probability of victory likely sits between 70-75%, not far off this implied price. Not much edge here.

2. Handicaps and Correct Score

• Ultra Prime (-1.5) @2.4 (implied ~42%).
• 2:0 score @2.4. Odds represent the same story: a clean sweep if Ultra Prime do reliably outmatch OMG.

Ultra Prime: K/D and map closing favor sweeps, but the LPL rarely features true stomps even in lower-tier vs mid-table, and Ultra Prime's tendency to win 2-1 says caution. No sharp value unless you model over a 50% chance OMG doesn't take a map (current data says a sweep happens <50%).

3. Kill/Objective Prop Markets

Most kill/baron/first blood prop odds center Ultra Prime around 1.62-1.8, which seems steep given both teams' objective stats are at 0%. No analytic justification to back early kill dominance props, as the sample says almost no firsts—markets are simply pricing confidence in favorite status, not statistical reality.

4. Total Maps

• Under 2.5 @1.75
• Over 2.5 @1.95

Recent form says Ultra Prime play competitive, non-dominant series, while placement matches for OMG also rarely finish 0-2 except to very top opposition. With current form and style data, the pricing on Over 2.5 (i.e. a 2-1 score) at 1.95 may offer value. If Ultra Prime are rightfully favorites but not elite closers, and OMG can steal a scrappy map, the price may be slightly inefficient in assuming a sweep is that likely.

Final Thoughts

The broad shape here is a mid-table LPL dogfight: slightly more upside on predicting a three-map drawn-out series (especially at 1.95), while skepticism is required towards big objective numbers from either team based on actual three-month samples. Ultra Prime are correctly favored; odds for a clean sweep or heavy early dominance are aggressive and not backed by recent play style. Over 2.5 Maps at nearly +money looks the avenue for value if you trust form.

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Written on May 4, 2025 3:49 PM