Top Esports - Ninjas in Pyjamas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL 2025 Split 2 on May 8 is a classic favorite versus underdog matchup. With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, Top Esports (TES) must prove their dominance as title contenders, while Ninjas in Pyjamas (NiP) seek an upset to keep their split alive after an abysmal run.

Team Form Overview

Top Esports Recent Form: TES has struggled, losing their last four in regulation (1-2 to NiP, 1-2 to Bilibili, 1-2 to Team WE, and 0-2 to ThunderTalk), only beating Invictus Gaming in their last five matches. While three of those losses were 1-2—with at least a map won—confidence is shaky considering expectations for a top LPL team.

Ninjas in Pyjamas Recent Form: NiP's run has been rough: four straight defeats by clear margins (0-2 vs Anyone's Legend, Bilibili Gaming, and FunPlus Phoenix; 1-2 vs TES, 1-2 vs ThunderTalk Gaming). Their only highlight is a 2-1 win... against TES themselves. Still, form remains poor, with the team rarely even competitive in most series.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

• First Objectives:

  • TES: 45% for both first blood/first dragon, only 9% first Baron, low early kill control (first 5/10/15 kills below 30%).
  • NiP: 0% on all early indicators—not a single first blood, dragon, baron, or early kill cluster in last three months, signaling very slow/weak starts.

• Macro/Kill Data:

  • TES: Gold diff at 15 is -305 (poor), K:D is strong at 2.0, out-damaging opponents significantly (3,000 DMG/min).
  • NiP: Dead even gold diff at 15, but worse K:D (1.75), less gold/min (1,828 vs 1,894), and lower damage output.

• Map Win Data:

  • Both lineups have low overall win rates lately; recent H2H is the only bright spot for NiP, as they actually upset TES the last time out.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Current odds:

• TES to win: 1.17 | NiP: 4.80
• TES -1.5: 1.68 | NiP +1.5: 2.10
• Correct score 2-0: 1.65; 2-1: 3.3

Statistical, recent form, and historical data all point to TES being by far the better team, but with two caveats:

• TES have a history of dropping a map even when they win,
• NiP has managed an upset BO3 win over them in the current split.

The model/market price MASSIVELY under-rates NiP's chances of simply taking a map (recent H2H, TES' habit of close 2-1s/lost openers), making NiP +1.5 at 2.10 strong on value: implied, NiP only takes a map ~47% of the time, but data here (TES dropping at least one map in 4 last 5, NiP's one functional performance vs TES) suggests the real probability is >60%.

Final Thoughts

There is little justification to back Ninjas overall, but the best value edge is NiP to take a map (+1.5 handicap @ 2.10), exploiting TES' slump and mappedropped tendencies. Moneyline upsets aren't probable; however, market inefficiency here grants genuine value for +1.5.

In summary: no value in favorites, but sharp bettors should grab NiP +1.5.

Written on May 5, 2025 3:47 PM