ThunderTalk Gaming - FunPlus Phoenix

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

ThunderTalk Gaming faces FunPlus Phoenix in the 2025 LPL Split 2. This best-of-three is a pivotal play for both teams as the standings start to sharpen heading into the middle of the split. With each victory translating directly to valuable series wins towards playoff seeding, both rosters are striving to convert any opening into a match victory. FPX, coming off a revitalized run, seeks to maintain top-four ambitions, while TT is scrapping for consistency and a spot in contention.

Team Form Overview

ThunderTalk Gaming has struggled to find rhythm, posting a 1-4 record across the last five matches. Their lone win came over Ninjas in Pyjamas, while dropping series to Top Esports, Anyone's Legend, Team WE, and JDG, with no series reaching a decider except for the loss versus JDG (1-2). Their inability to threaten elite teams underlines a lack of form and seen in the manner of defeat with multiple 0-2's.

FunPlus Phoenix demonstrates far superior form, going 4-1 across their latest five. Wins came over Bilibili Gaming, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Weibo Gaming, and an impressive 2-1 over JDG, with only Team WE tripping up FPX. Their win rate, especially against teams above TT’s level, signals an upward trajectory and growing team cohesion after a turbulent roster period.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Across the last three months, both teams show significant weaknesses in early objectives (0% first Blood, first Baron, first Dragon rates), but differences emerge mid-to-late game:

• Gold Per Minute: FPX leads (1831 vs TT’s 1782), a significant positive over time in setups and snowball potential.
• Kills/Min: FPX holds a respectable 0.457 vs TT at 0.404; however, TT's kill/death ratio (K/D) is markedly higher at 1.77 versus FPX’s 1.26—indicating that while FPX starts fast and wide, their advantage occasionally comes at higher risk, giving up kills while closing.
• Champion Damage: Marginally favors FPX (2573 vs 2539), underscoring fighting power but not by a broad margin.

Neither squad exhibits clear edge in early-game execution by stats, suggesting opens for swingy maps or comeback potential. However, FPX’s better average metrics and recent consistency suggest superior decision-making in transitions.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Odds:

• ThunderTalk Gaming: 2.40
• FunPlus Phoenix: 1.55

Map Handicaps & Total Maps:

• FPX (-1.5): 2.6
• Map over 2.5: 1.90

Stat & Form Context: The odds price FPX at a 64% implied probability and TT at 41%. Given FPX's recent large-match efficacy and better metrics, this feels fair—the gap aligns with team strengths. TT’s root issues and low conversion make even the 2.40 feel short, not value.

Map Handicap FPX -1.5 @ 2.6: The handicap is priced as only a 38% shot—yet TT have been blown out in 3 out of 4 recent losses, signaling poor map resilience versus the LPL’s upper-half. FPX's map conversions and trend of efficient best-of-threes (most wins were clean 2-0) elevate this from fair to slight value.

Other markets: No edge for early objectives or first kill props (all stats at 0%); prices reflect coinflip.

Final Thoughts

While FunPlus Phoenix are deserved favorites with clear form/metric leads, the market accurately prices their ML and map odds in most spots. The only clear lean is minor value on FPX -1.5 as ThunderTalk have been repeatedly swept and lack comeback machinery. No alternative props show value given both teams' poor first objective rates and low stat edges.

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Written on May 5, 2025 3:47 PM