Team WE - Bilibili Gaming

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The LPL 2025 Split 2 continues with a prominent best-of-three: Team WE vs. Bilibili Gaming (BLG). BLG are firm title contenders aiming to solidify their dominance near the top of the table, while Team WE seeks to build on recent improvements and push into playoff contention. This matchup has clear implications for league momentum, making it critical for WE’s climb and for BLG’s statement of consistency.

Team Form Overview

Team WE:

• Recent Results: 4-1 across last 5
• Notable Wins: NiP (2-0), FPX (2-1), ThunderTalk (2-0), Weibo Gaming (2-1)
• Lone Loss: 0-2 to Invictus Gaming
• WE’s improvement is apparent: only one dropped map in four recent victories, and two sweeps. Their momentum is built on beating mid/low-table opposition, yet the close series vs. WBG signals relative form.

Bilibili Gaming:

• Recent Results: 3-2 across last 5
• Wins: FPX (2-1), Weibo Gaming (2-1), NiP (2-0)
• Losses: Weibo Gaming, FPX (each 1-2, away)
• While BLG is still ahead in table strength, the two recent losses are notable, but each were in best-of-3 vs. opponents that recently pushed WE as well. The team still closes tight series. BLG's win over NiP compared to WE’s identical win positions both teams closely in short-term form.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Three-Month Team Stats Comparison:

• Kills per Minute: WE (0.43), BLG (0.57)
• K:D Ratio: WE (1.28), BLG (1.98)
• Gold Per Minute: WE (1825), BLG (1936)
• First Blood/Objective Stats: Both teams register 0% rates, illustrating sample size/patch split or weaknesses in early macro uptake recently.
• Champion Damage: WE (2641), BLG (2878)

BLG are superior statistically in damage, KDA, and gold intake. The very minor edge in kill metrics points towards better teamfighting transitions and objective setups. However, the lack of distinct first blood/objective rates, either from anomalous stat recording or meta shifts, dulls the edge typically found in early game propositions. Both squads are most comfortable taking games late, which fits BLG’s style but be cautious of value on first objective lines.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

The market is severely skewed towards Bilibili Gaming:

• Match Winner: BLG at 1.17 (Over 85% implied); WE at 4.80 (just 20% implied)

This is near-absolute market faith in BLG, exceeding their actual map outputs. WE’s 4-1 form, victories across comparable-placed teams, and competitive stats suggest implied odds underrate their shot at a map, if not the series.

Consider these market options for value hunting:

• WE +1.5 maps (2.15): This means WE only needs to take a map—not the series—and the recent form gap is smaller than odds show. Probability—by recent BO3s and opponent overlap—suggests closer to ~45%, versus the implied 46.5%. Tiny margin, but possible for large stake bettors.
• Over 2.5 Maps (2.50): Both teams have recent 3-map series against similar opposition; the Implied ~40% is lower than statistical trends suggesting 50%+ for a decider when mid-table teams challenge favorites.

Other prop bets (first blood, objective, map winner) reflect correct pricing based on gap in kill/gold/damage stats. WE's lack of distinctive early-game aggression limits underdog spike props; first blood odds at 2.0 (50%) match up fairly with risk.

Final Thoughts

On pure numbers, the market is correct (BLG are favorites), but difference in win probability and three-game frequency is overstated. If betting this matchup, look primarily at Over 2.5 maps or Team WE +1.5 at reasonable odds as sharp, lower-liquidity edges. Upside is limited elsewhere with current lines.

Written on May 8, 2025 8:56 AM