Ninjas in Pyjamas - Weibo Gaming

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The upcoming Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Weibo Gaming match in the LPL 2025 Split 2 is a clash near the bottom end of the table with huge implications for both team's chances of staying competitive in the split. With both rosters coming off stretches of disappointing results, this is a key opportunity for course correction, especially for Ninjas in Pyjamas, who are staring down another winless phase. Weibo Gaming, while favored, cannot afford another setback against a struggling NiP, especially in a season with razor-thin margins for playoff contention.

Team Form Overview

Ninjas in Pyjamas

NiP come into this matchup on a brutal losing streak, having dropped their last five series:

• 0-2 to Anyone's Legend
• 0-2 to Bilibili Gaming
• 1-2 to Top Esports
• 0-2 to FunPlus Phoenix
• 1-2 to ThunderTalk Gaming

This makes them probably the coldest team in the LPL at the moment, averaging less than one map win per series and showing almost no early-game strength or closing potential.

Weibo Gaming

Weibo weren’t on a great run either, but there's at least a bit of life:

• 1-2 loss to Team WE
• 2-1 win over JD Gaming
• 2-1 win over Ninjas in Pyjamas (recent direct h2h)
• 0-2 loss to Anyone's Legend
• 0-2 loss to FunPlus Phoenix

They’ve at least beaten NiP recently and took a map in most series but, like their opponents, display weaknesses against midtable squads. Of note, their wins over NiP and JDG suggest a level of consistency above very bottom-tier teams.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Across the last three months:

• Gold Per Minute: NiP slightly edges Weibo (1827 vs 1807). This is not translating to game wins and may reflect garbage time gold gathering.
• Kills Over Death (K/D ratio): Weibo (1.89) is ahead of NiP (1.75), a mark that usually correlates strongly with consistency, especially when tracked over multiple series.
• First Objectives: Both teams have a 0% rate in all firsts -- Baron, Dragon, First Blood, and clutch kill milestones. This absence may reflect lack of proactivity or just holes in the dataset/surface randomness.
• Champion Damage: NiP marginally ahead (2651 vs 2498), but in the context of their losing streak, likely means fights in lost causes rather than objective securing.

Weibo Gaming is more efficient and lethal—and versus bottom feeders, their K/D splits jump.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Moneyline

• NiP @ 3.60: Implied probability of ~27.7%. Given NiP’s last five match performances (all losses, several with 0-2 blowouts), there’s little edge. No strong recent map wins.
• Weibo @ 1.28: Implies ~78% chance. Recent H2H (Weibo 2-1 NiP, JDG 1-2 Weibo), as well as overall slightly higher K/D and better recent map record supports them as proper favorites.

Map Handicap/Total

• NiP +1.5 maps @ 1.82 is the most interesting. NiP has managed to occasionally scrape a map despite horrid series records; three of last five losses included at least one map, including a three-mapper vs the same Weibo less than three weeks ago. The implied probability (54.9%) may undervalue NiP's capacity to force a map in "bad-team" matchups.
• Under 2.5 @ 1.58 is standard, but risks due to NiP’s occasional map-taking against Weibo-tier opposition.

Early-Game Markets

Both squads are underwhelming in first objectives, first kill races (~0% static), making these markets highly volatile, with no clear mathematical edge.

Correct Score / Specials

• Weibo 2:0 @ 1.9 may be slightly short; given the data pointing to NiP’s odd ability to force three, this isn’t strong value.
• Quadra/Penta: Historical rates make these long-shots with hefty house edge—skip.

Final Thoughts

Market pricing aligns with form and statistical gaps, but the best case for mild value is NiP +1.5 maps. Given Weibo Gaming usually lets at least one map slip to weaker opponents—and NiP has, despite the losses, fought to map 3 against both Weibo and ThunderTalk—there’s a thin but real value edge over an implied sub-55%. There is no substantial value in outright NiP moneyline, as probability-resilient models still shade Weibo heavy favorites.

Summary: Lean NiP +1.5 maps at 1.82 as value; other markets offer negligible or negative edge given the teams’ forms and datasets.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:11 PM