NiP
2.00
FPX
1.78
Analysis and statistics
Match Context & Stakes
The showdown between Ninjas in Pyjamas (NIP) and FunPlus Phoenix (FPX) on May 12th is an important regular season fixture in the LPL 2025 Split 2. Both teams find themselves needing positive results: for NIP, a win is pivotal to maintain playoff relevancy after a turbulent start, while FPX look to reassert their upper-table credentials and bounce back from recent inconsistency. With implications for standings, motivation should run high on both sides in this critical mid-split matchup.
Team Form Overview
NIP come in struggling, losing four of their last five series (1-4 overall). Notably, all losses have been in convincing fashion, with three ended by 0–2 scorelines. Their lone victory was against Weibo Gaming—a weaker opponent who currently languish near the bottom of the table—which diminishes the perceived weight of that win. Recent defeats vs. Bilibili (0–2), Anyone’s Legend (0–2), Team WE (0–2), and Top Esports (1–2) indicate persistent issues in both closing out games and contesting top LPL forces.
FPX have also trended inconsistently at 2–3 in their last five but show slightly higher peaks. They secured a solid win over Bilibili Gaming (2–1) and convincingly swept NIP (2–0) less than a month ago. However, defeats to Top Esports (0–2), Bilibili Gaming (1–2), and Team WE (1–2) render them far from invulnerable. Overall, FPX’s wins have come against NIP and mid-table competition, while they've struggled when stepping up in class.
Stat-Based Matchup Analysis
The three-month statistical window paints a modestly more positive outlook for FPX, though neither side excels in critical early-game metrics:
- First Blood / First Baron / First Dragon: Both NIP and FPX notably have a 0% success rate in all three categories across this sample, emphasizing underwhelming early game agency. That’s corroborated by zero gold differential at 15 minutes for both. This is a potentially strong indicator that neither team controls tempo early, which can lead to slower and possibly closer maps.
- Gold per Minute: FPX have a clear edge (1853 vs. 1816). This, paired with a significantly stronger kills-per-minute rate (0.49 vs. 0.43) and a higher kills/death ratio (1.37 vs. 1.08), underlines more reliable teamfighting and skirmish outcome conversion. NIP actually do slightly more champion damage per minute, suggesting lingering mid- to late-game teamfight capability, but often without positive results.
With FPX’s win in last month's head-to-head (2–0), they have the momentum and data edge.
Market Evaluation & Betting Edges
- Match Winner Odds: NIP @ 2.00, FPX @ 1.78. While these odds reflect FPX’s status as a modest favorite, the historical and statistical data overwhelmingly favor FPX. A true line for FPX should arguably be closer to 1.60 given their superior H2H, better kill metrics, and NIP’s protracted struggles. FPX thus offer slight edge at 1.78.
- Handicap Markets: FPX (-1.5) is available at a juiced 3.20—excellent value considering their clear sweep last meeting and NIP’s violent 0–2/1–2 record in recent best-of-threes. Given NiP’s tendency to collapse in two maps, this price overstates the contest’s closeness.
- Total Maps: Bookmaking reflects a coinflip (O/U 2.5: both @ 1.85), but NIP have lost in straight maps three of last four loses, with FPX’s wins often clean as well. Unders appear slightly undervalued. No noteworthy value was found in early first-objective odds, kill leads, or blood/baron bets due to both sides’ poor early-game execution and ambiguous trends.
Final Thoughts
FPX should be larger favorites based on compressed H2H history, better overall statistical efficiency, and NIP’s recent best-of-three performances. The clearest mispricing is FPX -1.5 at above 3.00, which stands out in a match liable to follow past trends. Market odds for a default FPX win, while not massive in value, still shade positive. The only caution: neither squad dominates early games, which could increase variance—but edges remain with FPX.
Written on
Predictions and tips
- Map Handicap: FunPlus Phoenix (-1.5)3.20
FunPlus Phoenix -1.5 maps at 3.2 is noticeably mispriced: NIP have lost three of last four series via 0–2 sweep and FPX defeated them 2–0 in recent H2H. FPX better statistically across kills/min and K/D, suggesting 0-2 is significantly more likely than implied.
High
