Invictus Gaming - Team WE

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The upcoming LPL 2025 Split 2 clash between Invictus Gaming and Team WE takes center stage on May 9th. With both teams eager to find momentum early in Split 2, every victory carries greater playoff implications. Invictus Gaming enter as clear betting favorites, but both teams aim to solidify their upper-table credentials and address inconsistency. This BO3 thus holds above-average value in shaping the mid-season narrative for both squads and influencing playoff seeding scenarios, with added motivation gleaned from their last meeting which ended in a one-sided IG victory.

Team Form Overview

Invictus Gaming

• Form (last five): 0 wins, 5 losses
• Notable losses: Top Esports (1-2), Anyone’s Legend (0-2), Weibo Gaming (1-2 & 1-2)
• Despite coming into this with a reputation advantage, IG’s form has been extremely rough. They’ve dropped five straight series, three of those being close maps but all resulting in defeats. Of note, Their recent losses are generally competitive, but they struggle to close series, consistently faulting in decisive moments.

Team WE

• Form (last five): 4 wins, 1 loss
• Wins over: Ninjas in Pyjamas (2-0), FunPlus Phoenix (2-1), ThunderTalk (2-0), Weibo Gaming (2-1)
• WE is on a major uptick, riding a four-series win streak with only one stumble in their last five contests – which notably came against IG, where they lost 0-2. Their quality wins (FunPlus Phoenix and Weibo) hint at a team on the rise that can take games off higher-tier opponents when hitting their form.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Invictus Gaming – Last 3 Months:

• Kills/min: 0.46 | K:D ratio: 1.43 | GPM: 1,844 | Champ Damage: 2,744
• First objective rates (Baron/Dragon/First Blood, etc.): Virtually zero, confirming poor early game conversion and openings. Their wins are more grind-y and less predicated on snowball dominance.

Team WE – Last 3 Months:

• Kills/min: 0.43 | K:D ratio: 1.28 | GPM: 1,825 | Champ Damage: 2,641
• Similarly, extremely weak early objective rates. Slightly lower teamfight stats, but the difference to IG in raw numbers is narrow.

Key Takeaways:

• Both teams lack an early-game trademark: near 0% first Baron/Dragon/Blood over the last quarter signals hesitancy or a default capitulation in the early game. IG edges out WE only slightly in milestone metrics like K:D and GPM.
• The biggest differential is recent trajectory, not underlying stat quality.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner - Twoway:

• IG @ 1.35 implied probability ≈ 74%, WE @ 3.10 ≈ 32%.
• Bookmakers heavily overweight IG’s name value and priors. Stat edges exist, but WE’s uptrend (4-1 and two top-tier upsets) suggest this gap isn’t truly so wide. A closer to 60-40 split would be fair if weighing present momentum.

Map Handicap (-1.5):

• Invictus (-1.5) @ 2.15: Given IG have not swept any opponent in their recent run, this is steep at any plus money line.
• Team WE (+1.5) @ 1.65: A cautious but logically sound entry for conservative backers given WE’s form and upset ability.

Correct Score:

• IG 2:0 @ 2.1 is not attractive for the favorite; value absent based on current performance
• Opportunity may exist in WE 2:1 or 1:2 (4.8 and 3.1) given IG’s narrow losses and WE’s surging form

First Kills/First Baron/First Inhibitor:

• Very little edge as both teams show close to zero dominance in all clutch-objective markers recently.
• Markets like "First Baron," "First Dragon," are functionally coin flips but are usually priced as heavy IG favorites – grades the WE side to mild value for tossups.

Final Thoughts

From a true value betting perspective:

• Markets are priced strongly with legacy and brand. Team WE’s 3.1 for a straight up win or covering +1.5 maps at 1.65 offers legitimate value, especially given current form and IG’s collapse. Markets that price IG as a runaway favorite ignore the actual developments of this split and the tightly clustered statistical profile.
• Aggressive, small stakes can be considered on WE ML, with +1.5 (1.65) a reasonable multi-accumulator leg for bettors expecting either a close dog upset or at least a tightly-contested series.
• First objective props lack signal; no true edge as both teams have exceptionally poor rates.

Bettors should avoid narrative overpricing: Team WE’s mid-split surge is not reflected in the odds.

Written on May 6, 2025 3:45 PM