FunPlus Phoenix - Team WE

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

FunPlus Phoenix vs Team WE is a pivotal matchup in the LPL 2025 Split 2. Both teams are contending for playoff positions in one of the deepest leagues in pro League of Legends, and securing a series victory maintains vital momentum. With both teams fighting for higher seeding, this Best-of-3 is highly impactful, especially as the regular season advances towards its deciding stages.

Team Form Overview

FunPlus Phoenix enter this matchup with impressive momentum: they've won their last four series—beating JD Gaming 2–1, Weibo Gaming 2–0, Ninjas in Pyjamas 2–0, and Bilibili Gaming 2–1. Notably, they're beating both contenders and mid-table teams, signaling strong current form and adaptability across formats.

Team WE have been far less consistent. Their last five feature a 2–1 win over FPX, a 1–2 loss to Weibo, a convincing 2–0 win on the road at ThunderTalk, and two tough home losses 0–2 (to Invictus) and 1–2 (to Anyone’s Legend). They remain capable of upsetting but are trending downward compared to FPX’s surging form.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Statistically, both teams produce similar numbers, though with important nuances:

• Gold Per Minute: FPX – 1831.5 | WE – 1811.2 (FPX slightly superior)
• Kills/Minute: FPX – 0.458 | WE – 0.417 (Higher offensive impact for FPX)
• Kills/Deaths Ratio: FPX – 1.26 | WE – 1.24 (Both slightly above water, but trending towards competitive evenness)
• First Blood, First Dragon, and Objective Control Rates: Negligible on both sides in the last three months, possibly signaling low early game priority or sample size issues over latest matches.
• Champion Damage: Near identical (FPX – 2573.3, WE – 2573.6)

FPX’s higher “kills per minute” and Gold Per Minute—especially combined with recent wins against much tougher schedules—may translate to superior mid-game setups and side-lane pressure. Team WE’s stagnating results signal stagnancy in closing games or converting leads.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Match Winner - Twoway: FunPlus Phoenix @ 1.78 | Team WE @ 2.00

  With their recency bias (4 straight series wins, including over playoff-resilient teams) and modest but clear stat edge, FPX should be implied probability (using the odds) at 56% (1/1.78) versus Team WE's 50% at even odds. However, based on the form and recent head-to-head strength, a line closer to 1.6/2.3 would better reflect current strength—suggesting slight value on the FPX moneyline.

• Map Handicap: FPX -1.5 @ 3.2

  Given FPX’s 2-0 potential shown repeatedly in recent series (vs. Weibo, NiP) and WE’s recent series dropped 0-2 to Invictus, there’s justification for this line. The odds here (31%) seem in line, though markets are not mispricing blowouts—the implied probability is close to what recency would suggest (FPX have secured two clean sweeps out of their last five, but not consistently, so not pure value).

• Correct Score: 2:0 @ 3.1

  Again, reasonable reflection based off recent data.

• Kills/Objective Markets: The near-even odds on first blood, first baron, and kill milestones show no mispriced edges—especially as both teams have notably low First Blood/Baron conversion stats of late (0%), so nothing actionable here from the data as special value.

Summary: • The strongest value is on FunPlus Phoenix’s match winner line at 1.78, with a slight edge over their implied probability given current form streak, better stats vs schedule.

Final Thoughts

While the stats do not show dramatic gaps, FunPlus Phoenix’s recent form, marginally better tempo stats, and results against serious LPL contenders signal the market is slightly underweighting their winning chances. Unless dramatic lineup or meta shifts occur pre-match, FPX at above 1.7 markets is a small value position. Recomputation late for last-minute roster/meta news is recommended for bigger stakes.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:09 PM