Bilibili Gaming - Weibo Gaming

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The 2025 LPL Split 2 is heating up, with both Bilibili Gaming and Weibo Gaming aiming to solidify their positions as playoff contenders. As mainstays in the LPL, both squads have much to prove amidst a tightly competitive field, and every series now carries extra weight as teams jostle for crucial standings.

Team Form Overview

Bilibili Gaming

• Recent form (last 5 series): 2 wins, 3 losses. In their last outing, BLG overcame Ninjas in Pyjamas 2-0. They have previously lost to Top Esports (1-2), JD Gaming (0-2), and Anyone’s Legend (1-2), with a win over Team WE (2-1). This blend of results suggests swingy form—capable of beating lower-ranked teams but falling to LPL's elite.

Weibo Gaming

• Recent form (last 5 series): 2 wins, 3 losses. Their latest victory came against JD Gaming (2-1), but also notched a win versus Ninjas in Pyjamas (2-1) while suffering losses against Team WE (1-2), Anyone’s Legend (0-2), and FunPlus Phoenix (0-2). They, too, show inconsistencies but edged a better team in their last handful of games.

Conclusion: Both teams enter this series with identical surface form—each picking up a pair of wins, both with hiccups against mid-to-lower standings opponents.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Last 3-Months Metrics:

| Team | Gold/Minute | Kills/Min | KDA | Damage | |------------------------- |------------ |---------- |------------|-------------| | Bilibili Gaming | 1905 | 0.54 | 2.24 | 2776 | | Weibo Gaming | 1807 | 0.42 | 1.89 | 2498 |

• Gold per minute: BLG’s stronger economy (+98 GPM) shows a more proactive early–mid game.
• Kills per minute: BLG display higher aggression (0.54 vs 0.42); could indicate superior skirmish output or better snowball potential.
• Kill:Death Ratio (KDA): BLG (2.24) again edges ahead, hinting at cleaner teamfighting and fewer lost members per engagement.
• Damage dealt: BLG maintain a 2776 dpm vs Weibo’s 2498, Jeopardizing Weibo’s long teamfight sustainability.
• First-objective rates are all zero—likely not updated or both squads with scattered early series. Roster context does not provide recent swaps.

Statistically, Bilibili Gaming have possessed a higher tempo style and finished more efficiently; edge in map play is with BLG.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Money Line:

• BLG: 1.68 (implied ~60%)
• Weibo: 2.15 (implied ~46%)

Given BLG’s quantifiable advantages (higher GPM, tempo, kill rates), the 1.68 odds are a mild edge but closely reflective of true odds given recent scuffles against mid-table teams.

Handicap – BLG -1.5 at 3.00:

• Best value if you rate BLG’s snowball style can methodically punish Weibo, especially since both teams have swept and been swept in recent matchups.
• BLG’s higher tempo play & recent 2-0 over NiP suggest some value—3.00 overshoots actual performance-rates slightly. If you believe in momentum and gold/kills translating reliably, this holds thin value.

Totals:

• Over/Under 2.5 maps are pegged close to 50-50 (O2.5 at 1.78/ U2.5 at 1.92). Everything in both squads’ recent matchups points to volatility—a 2-1 split or a swift 2-0 is possible.

First blood/Objective/First kill: All lines at 1.7–1.8:

• Stats over three months don't give an edge here as both teams are logging 0s in first objectives; steer clear—markets are priced by coinflip.

Final Thoughts

This LPL clash pits evenly-matched, inconsistent foes; however, Bilibili Gaming’s round-to-round aggression, better gold stats, and kill conversion give them tangible edges. Bookmakers recognize this—but one value jumps out: Bilibili -1.5 maps at 3.00. Statistically, this covers more win scenarios for BLG’s playstyle than the odds suggest and could pay off if they get rolling early.

Otherwise, most core prices closely mirror the underlying likelihoods—with value premium concentrated on the handicap sweep line.

Written on May 4, 2025 3:49 PM