Bilibili Gaming - Ninjas in Pyjamas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The LPL 2025 Split 2 clash between Bilibili Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas on May 13, 2025, features a heavy favorite versus a significant underdog. With Bilibili Gaming priced as an overwhelming favorite, the focus is on whether there are overlooked margins for punters in derivative markets, rather than simply backing the outright.

Team Form Overview

Bilibili Gaming are coming in with strong form, taking victories over FunPlus Phoenix (2-1) and Weibo Gaming (2-1) earlier this month. Their only recent slip-up was a close loss to Weibo Gaming, but their track record in this split demonstrates competitive edge and clutch performance in high-stakes matches.

Ninjas in Pyjamas (NIP), on the other hand, are inconsistent: they suffered a 0-2 sweep to Bilibili less than three weeks ago and recently dropped losses to Top Esports and Anyone's Legend. However, they've also shown some resilience, with a clean 2-0 over Weibo Gaming this month amid the downswing, but the general arc is clear—NIP have been the lesser team when matched against top-tier LPL talent.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Kill & Gold Metrics

• Bilibili boast a formidable kills/deaths ratio (1.98) and gold per minute (1936.6), both far ahead of NIP (1.08 K/D, 1816 GPM). This suggests sustained map pressure and superior teamfighting for BLG.
• Kills Per Minute: BLG (0.57) v. NIP (0.43)—BLG play a more aggressive, punishing style. NIP aren’t a true turtle team, but they clearly struggle to keep tempo with elite squads.
• Champion Damage: Small BLG edge (2878 v. 2729)—indicative but less pronounced than map control stats.

Objective Control & Early Game

• Strikingly, all recent team stat rates for "First Baron", "First Dragon", "First Blood", etc., register zero for both squads. This implies no consistent coinflip winner and accentuates the need to focus on raw pacing (kills, gold) and split standings/form rather than any magic-bullet in 1st objective props.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Looking at the outright, BLG are justifiably massive favorites:

• Match Winner: BLG @1.17, NIP @4.8
• Handicap BLG (-1.5): 1.65; NIP (+1.5): 2.15

Given BLG’s reliability—and their recent 2-0 over NIP—this line is about where you’d expect. The proper way to find value is to stress-test the margin. Let's dig further:

• Correct Score 2:0 at 1.62 (Implied ~62%) is sharp, if a touch on the low side for med/high variance Bo3 (BLG still can drop the odd map), but not appealing enough to appear mispriced.
• Total Maps Under 2.5 at 1.48 is just a shade better than equivalent implied probability for 2:0, but considering NIP’s map win issues, doesn’t rate as strong value with this juice.
• NIP (+1.5 maps) at 2.15 (Implied ~47%) is the first angle to test for overvalue—does NIP win a map more than one-in-two times here? Their form and the raw metrics scream no—it would take an atypical collapse or outlier early leads to get even to one-in-three.
• Map 1/2 Winner markets (BLG ~1.26) likewise, are accurately reflective of BLG dominance in individual games.
• Early Objectives (First Blood/Baron at 1.68–1.4 BLG): Statistically both teams are unreliable and props appear generously juiced.

Final Thoughts

While public money is flowing to BLG (and deservedly so), the bookmakers’ lines are robust, with little pricing inefficiency in either the outright, spread, or total maps. BLG’s form edge is substantial—the stats and previous head-to-head are consistent with the chalky lines. For professionals, there’s no standout plus-EV angle across core or derivative markets—the numbers are simply too tight barring late roster news or exceptional drift before match start.

Written on May 10, 2025 4:00 PM