ULF Esports - Misa Esports

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The upcoming match between ULF Esports and Misa Esports in the TCL 2025 Spring split is set for May 7, 2025. Both squads are mid-table contenders striving for playoff positioning. With recent strong form from both organizations and significant momentum implications in play, a strong performance could have immediate ripple effects on their postseason fate.

Team Form Overview

ULF Esports Recent Form:

• Mixed results across their last five; wins over BBL Dark Passage and SuperMassive suggest clutch potential, but losses to Beşiktaş Esports and BoostGate indicate vulnerability. They also beat Misa Esports in their last H2H encounter on April 10th.
• 3-2 in their last five fixtures, including a direct win against Misa Esports.

Misa Esports Recent Form:

• Demonstrating a notable uptick: 3 consecutive wins over Beşiktaş Esports, SuperMassive, and BBL Dark Passage, covering a solid variety of opponents. Losses to Bushido Wildcats and BoostGate Esports are blips in an otherwise strong record.
• 3-2 in their last five, but, crucially, the three successive wins were their most recent outings; current momentum heavily favors Misa Esports.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Three-Month Team Performance Metrics:

• First Objectives:
  • ULF: Higher First Dragon Rate (69.2%) but lower First Baron (53.8%)
  • Misa: Superior First Baron Rate (61.9%) with a weaker First Dragon (38.1%)
  • Both nearly even on First Blood (~47%)
• Early Game:
  • ULF haunts a negative gold diff at 15 (-54), suggesting weaker early-game macro. Misa, in contrast, averages a +139.8 gold diff at 15—best-in-class in TCL—indicative of snowball potential.
• Kill Pressure & Efficiency:
  • Kills Per Minute: Misa (0.57) outpaces ULF (0.51), and deals more champion damage per minute (2924 vs 2594).
  • However, ULF maintains better kill-to-death ratio (1.61 vs 1.45), signaling superior clutch or teamfighting capability when fights break out.
• Objective Control vs Momentum:
  • ULF excels at First Dragon and maintains respectable First Kill markers, but continuously falls behind in gold early.
  • Misa’s gold diff and baron control set the tempo—should they translate this into mid game execution, they’ll punish mistakes far harder.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner – Twoway Market:

• Odds: ULF Esports @ 1.65 (Implies ~60.6% win probability) Misa Esports @ 2.10 (Implies ~47.6% win probability)
• Statistical and form-based arguments favor Misa Esports more than the odds imply. Their explosive early game advantage (+195 gold swing at 15 mins vs ULF), superior map presence, and dominant champion damage should outpace ULF’s relatively anemic starts.
• Market appears to underprice Misa's current momentum and early game macro. Factoring their improving streak (three straight, convincing wins) versus ULF’s more erratic form, the value side sits squarely on Misa at the current odds.

Final Thoughts

Momentum, statistics, and current form indicate that Misa Esports is being undervalued by the market. ULF Esports may be favored due to recency of direct H2H and slightly better kill ratios, but the consistency and explosiveness of Misa Esports—especially with regards to early-game control and win streak—justifies classifying their 2.10 odds as value. Unless late breaking roster news or patch changes heavily alter expectations, this match rates as a prime spot for an underdog, early-game dominant team ironed out by the numbers and recent confidence.

Value exists on Misa Esports at 2.10 for Match Winner.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:21 PM