Misa Esports - SuperMassive

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Misa Esports and SuperMassive are set to clash in the Turkish Championship League (TCL) 2025 Spring Split on May 1, 2025. This match is pivotal for both teams as they vie for a higher standing in the league, with playoff implications on the line.

Team Form Overview

Misa Esports Recent Matches:

• April 18, 2025: Lost to Bushido Wildcats (0-1)
• April 17, 2025: Lost to BoostGate Esports (0-1)
• April 11, 2025: Defeated Eternal Fire (1-0)
• April 10, 2025: Lost to ULF Esports (0-1)
• April 4, 2025: Defeated Beşiktaş Esports (1-0)

Misa Esports has a mixed recent form, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Notably, they secured victories against Eternal Fire and Beşiktaş Esports but suffered defeats to Bushido Wildcats, BoostGate Esports, and ULF Esports.

SuperMassive Recent Matches:

• April 30, 2025: Lost to Bushido Wildcats (0-1)
• April 18, 2025: Lost to Eternal Fire (0-1)
• April 17, 2025: Defeated Beşiktaş Esports (1-0)
• April 11, 2025: Defeated BBL Dark Passage (1-0)
• April 10, 2025: Defeated BoostGate Esports (1-0)

SuperMassive also holds a 3-2 record in their last five games, with wins over Beşiktaş Esports, BBL Dark Passage, and BoostGate Esports, but recent losses to Bushido Wildcats and Eternal Fire.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Misa Esports:

• First Baron Rate: 50%
• First Dragon Rate: 40%
• Gold Per Minute: 1868.75
• Gold Difference at 15 Minutes: +210.45
• First Blood Rate: 45%
• Kills Per Minute: 0.537
• Kill/Death Ratio: 1.402
• Champion Damage Per Minute: 2857.29

SuperMassive:

• First Baron Rate: 51.85%
• First Dragon Rate: 55.56%
• Gold Per Minute: 1868.70
• Gold Difference at 15 Minutes: +483.19
• First Blood Rate: 48.15%
• Kills Per Minute: 0.540
• Kill/Death Ratio: 1.523
• Champion Damage Per Minute: 2922.86

Statistically, SuperMassive holds a slight edge over Misa Esports in several key areas, including a higher First Dragon Rate, superior Gold Difference at 15 minutes, and a better Kill/Death Ratio. These metrics suggest a more aggressive early game and better overall team coordination.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner - Twoway:

• Misa Esports: 1.55
• SuperMassive: 2.30

The odds favor Misa Esports, implying a 64.5% probability of winning. However, considering SuperMassive's statistical advantages and recent form, the 2.30 odds (implying a 43.5% win probability) may undervalue their potential.

Map 1 - Total Kills Over/Under 33.5:

• Under 33.5: 2.10
• Over 33.5: 1.55

Both teams have similar Kills Per Minute (KPM) rates, suggesting a moderately paced game. The line at 33.5 total kills is well-set, making this market less attractive for value betting.

Map 1 - Kills Handicap:

• Misa Esports (-6.5): 1.70
• SuperMassive (+6.5): 1.88

Given the close statistical matchup, a 6.5 kill handicap appears substantial. SuperMassive covering this spread at 1.88 odds presents a potential value bet.

Final Thoughts

While Misa Esports is favored, SuperMassive's statistical strengths and comparable recent form suggest a closer contest than the odds imply. The value lies in backing SuperMassive to cover the +6.5 kills handicap in Map 1.

Written on May 4, 2025 3:50 PM