Eternal Fire - Misa Esports

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Eternal Fire vs Misa Esports takes place in the TCL 2025 Spring – one of the highest-stakes matches at this stage of Turkey's top-tier League of Legends circuit. Both teams are vying for playoff seeding, with Misa Esports entering as significant favorites per bookmaker pricing (1.48 vs 2.50 ML odds).

Team Form Overview

Eternal Fire emerge from their last five outings with a 2-3 record. Their most recent win came against BBL Dark Passage but was sandwiched between losses to BoostGate Esports and ULF Esports – two lower-table sides. Notably, both wins were clean 1-0 results, but their inconsistent record and losses to direct playoff competitors raise concerns about confidence and stability.

Misa Esports, by contrast, have won three of their last five including back-to-back victories over Beşiktaş Esports and SuperMassive, with only a single blip versus Bushido Wildcats. Their form is clearly trending upward, scoring wins against teams higher in the table and demonstrating resilience (winning both as favorites and slight underdogs).

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Comparing the past three months:

• Early Game Objectives:

  • Eternal Fire has clear strengths in first blood (53%) and first 5/10 kills (71%/65%), indicating a strong early-game skirmish focus.
  • Misa Esports, however, dominate the macro: 62% first Baron (vastly superior) and decisively better champion damage and kills per minute (0.572 vs 0.480).

• Resource Management & Scaling:

  • Misa enjoy nearly 100 more gold per minute and still yield a solid average gold lead by 15 (-219 for EF, +140 for Misa).
  • They deal notably more champion damage (2925 vs 2644).

• Fighting Stats:

  • Both sides rock a >1.45 kills/death ratio; with a slight edge to Eternal Fire (1.51 vs 1.45).

• Mid/Late Transition:

  • Misa are more consistent at securing Barons and scaling up; Eternal Fire front-load most of their kill/early action success. Misa gather momentum post-15, while Eternal’s grip tends to slip entering mid-game.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Bookmakers price Misa Esports as 1.48 ML favorites (approx 67.5% implied probability) versus 2.5 (40% implied) for Eternal Fire. Based on both teams' stats and especially Misa's recent form and objective control, Misa justifies clear favoritism — but the public may slightly underrate Eternal Fire’s early game spike, especially in the first blood/first 10 kills metrics.

Most market edges:

• The "Over 32.5 Total Kills" at 1.78 (≈ 56%) aligns well with both teams’ kill rates (Misa 0.57 KPM, EF 0.48 KPM, both above league average), but no outright mispricing stands outs.
• The handicap lines show Eternal Fire (+5.5) at 1.88 and (+6.5) at 1.78 — viable if you believe their early-game edges convert to a closer match, but Misa’s stronger close-outs make these only marginal value.
• No clear value on underkill lines vs game pace.

At mainline odds, value appears limited — markets are correctly shading towards Misa, with Eternal Fire’s fragility post-15 making a true upset less likely than the gap in pricing suggests.

Final Thoughts

This is a clash of Eternal Fire’s early fireworks and Misa Esports’ proven composure. Statistically, Misa deserve clear favorite status, and the market roughly reflects fair relative strength. Eternal have a puncher's chance via early snowball, especially around first blood and first 5/10 kills, but have failed to translate these starts into wins with regularity in 2025. As such, unless you can find value props for "first 10 kills" or "first blood" for Eternal Fire (lines aren't directly listed here), main markets offer no discernible edge.

No recommended value bets on sides or totals based on current odds and matchup data.

Written on May 8, 2025 9:03 AM