Beşiktaş Esports - Bushido Wildcats

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The TCL 2025 Spring split is hitting its decisive juncture, and every match matters for playoff positioning. Beşiktaş Esports and Bushido Wildcats are both mid-table teams looking to break through to the upper echelon. While not a must-win from a qualification perspective, momentum here could be critical for both sides and fine margins could decide their future tiebreaks or seedings.

Team Form Overview

Beşiktaş Esports:

• Last 5 Results: 2W-3L (Wins over BoostGate Esports, ULF Esports; Losses to Misa Esports, BBL Dark Passage, SuperMassive)
• Pattern: Recent victories come against lower table opposition, whereas losses to playoff contenders indicate struggles versus high-tier teams.

Bushido Wildcats:

• Last 5 Results: 2W-3L (Wins over SuperMassive, Misa Esports; Losses to ULF Esports, BoostGate Esports, BBL Dark Passage)
• Pattern: Clear inconsistency, with the wins notably more impressive (e.g. beating SuperMassive). Losses are mostly on the road but against similar to slightly higher-caliber rivals.

Both teams come in with mirrored records, but the difficulty and statement nature of wins tilt slightly for Bushido Wildcats, while Beşiktaş’s edge appears more routine — defeating weaker sides but slipping against strong resistance.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Team Statistics (Last 3 Months):

Beşiktaş Esports

• Gold per Minute: 1798 (edge over opposition)
• Gold Differential @ 15: +426 (gets early leads)
• First Baron/Dragon: ~31%
• First Blood: 46%
• Kills per Minute: 0.42
• K/D (kills over death): 1.73
• Champion Damage per Minute: 2830

Bushido Wildcats

• Gold per Minute: 1787 (marginally lower)
• Gold Differential @ 15: -721 (trends behind early)
• First Baron: 33% | First Dragon: 50% (stronger in early objectives, especially dragon)
• First Blood: 75% (advantage over Beşiktaş: high aggression early)
• Kills per Minute: 0.42 (almost even)
• K/D: 2.94 (much better than Beşiktaş, indicating better kill trading and fight efficiency)
• Champion Damage per Minute: 2615

Breakdown:

• Beşiktaş regularly get early gold/tempo leads but have difficulty snowballing it into major objective control. KD ratio is concerning against a Wildcats team that trades better in mid-to-late game.
• Bushido Wildcats on the flip side cede early map control but excel at early aggro (first blood) and can swing games with advantageous skirmishes, as indicated by their strong K/D range. Early deficits are not always fatal for them owing to contesting dragons and picking timely fights.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner (Twoway):

• Beşiktaş Esports @ 1.58
• Bushido Wildcats @ 2.20

Modeling a true coinflip based on overall stats doesn’t hold as both sides have profiles that can trouble each other.

• Beşiktaş’s pricing near 1.58 suggests they win this >60% of the time. Given their gold at 15 advantage, you can see the rationale. BUT Bushido Wildcats' elite K/D and first blood/teamfight numbers point to a much higher live-win probability than the market grants if their laning phase isn’t disastrous.
• Book price for Wildcats at 2.20 suggests ~45% win probability; stats (esp. aggressive early trends and teamfight efficiency) may indicate they should be closer to 50%.

Kills Handicap (Map 1):

• (e.g. Bushido Wildcats +5.5 @ 1.88 / +6.5 @ 1.78): The Wildcats’ ability to hang tough and their inflated K/D point toward value on higher kill handicaps, unless Beşiktaş get a perfect early roll.

Total Kills: Recent match data indicates tightly contested, fewer snowball outcomes — most closing 20-27 kills. Over 30.5 @ 1.78 is near even odds, but given the stakes and measured styles, no clear value edge on kill totals or alternative lines.

Final Thoughts

Statistically, Bushido Wildcats are being underrated here — especially factoring in how their higher first blood rate and K/D ratio can swing close games despite early deficits. The value bet is on Bushido Wildcats outright. Unless you’re hunting longer shot handicaps or rare map script stories, the main play sits in an inflated price on Wildcats who profile as at least near-equal to Beşiktaş in this matchup.

Written on May 8, 2025 9:02 AM