BBL Dark Passage - Bushido Wildcats

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The clash between BBL Dark Passage and Bushido Wildcats in the TCL 2025 Spring is a noteworthy contest between teams eyeing advancement in Turkey's premier League of Legends competition. With playoffs looming and both squads positioned for crucial ladder points, this fixture could shape the postseason seedings. Given the recency of their last meeting just weeks ago, expect both sides to adapt and bring targeted game plans.

Team Form Overview

BBL Dark Passage enters this matchup following a challenging patch, having dropped 3 of their last 5 contests (2W-3L). Their recent losses were handed out by Misa Esports (0-1), ULF Esports (0-1), and SuperMassive (0-1). Wins have come against BoostGate Esports (1-0) and their last meeting with Bushido Wildcats (1-0), showing capability for mid-table upsets but lacking consistency against slightly stronger sides.

Bushido Wildcats are one of the form squads in the league, notching an impressive 3 wins in their last 5 outings, with victories over SuperMassive, Misa Esports, and Eternal Fire all via 1-0 scorelines. A narrow recent loss to Beşiktaş Esports (0-1) and the aforementioned defeat against BBL Dark Passage (0-1) mar an otherwise strong streak, showcasing recovery from earlier wobbles and putting them in an upper bracket push.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Statistic | BBL Dark Passage | Bushido Wildcats ---|---|--- First Baron Rate | 33.3% | 33.3% First Dragon Rate | 77.8% | 66.7% First Blood Rate | 22.2% | 77.8% Gold Per Minute | 1737 | 1816 Gold Diff @ 15 | -545 | -1021 Kills/Minute | 0.39 | 0.46 K/D Ratio | 1.26 | 3.78 Champion Damage | 2317 | 2808

A closer look at team stats over the last three months:

• Bushido Wildcats possess a major advantage in kill potential (high kills/min, K/D ratio, and champion damage), coupled with explosively strong early game pressure reflected in their first blood rate (77.8%).
• Their gold diff at 15 (-1021) is worse even than BBL Dark Passage, but their mid-to-late game teamfighting and snowballing with positive K/D and damage show they play well from neutral or behind.
• BBL Dark Passage performs best in securing early objectives (first drake rate 77.8%), but struggles to convert this to meaningful gold leads, with a consistently negative gold diff at 15. Their kill rate and damage profile lags notably behind Bushido Wildcats, reflecting less carry threat despite early macro control.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

From the market:

• Bushido Wildcats: 1.72 (implied probability ≈ 58%)
• BBL Dark Passage: 2.00 (implied probability ≈ 50%)

The advanced stats point decisively to Bushido Wildcats: they combine enormous kill- and damage-centred upside, the league's top First Blood profile, and recent mid-tier wins, suggesting their true probability closer to 64-66%—not the 58% the current odds suggest. BBL Dark Passage have shown they can grind out a win, including in the last H2H, but the majority of data points to Bushido Wildcats comfortably superior.

By contrast, there is little justification for BBL Dark Passage presents value at 2.00, given lackluster form, weaker teamfight stats, and evidence they lose against competent playoff teams far more frequently than implied odds.

Final Thoughts

Bushido Wildcats not only have the stronger three-month stats and better recent form, but their macro and micro edges (especially early and in total damage) honestly aren't captured by the modest edge in the market. While BBL Dark Passage did win the most recent H2H, Wildcats’ superior team performance metrics over a meaningful sample make them the EV+ side here. Roster browsers and recent matches yield no evidence of roster instability or key injuries for the Wildcats. In summary, Bushido Wildcats to win at 1.72 exhibits genuine value given their profile pace and win probability.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:22 PM