Nice Try - Odivelas Sports Club

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The LPLOL 2025 Spring split delivers another telling fixture as Nice Try takes on Odivelas Sports Club. With group standings tightening, this match holds substantial weight for both sides: Nice Try fights to exit the lower table, while Odivelas aims to consolidate a playoff position. The short season format means every map and tiebreaker matters, making these games high-pressure affairs regardless of apparent favoritism.

Team Form Overview

Nice Try: In their last five games (sample compressed due to lack of data, but 1 win shown) Nice Try has shown only a single victory (vs. Keypulse Esports) while suffering losses against GTZ Esports, Hurricane of Feathers, and most recently to FlameHard. The team’s inability to string wins and vulnerability against every opponent in the bracket underlines their underdog position, though their solitary win prevents them from being dismissed outright.

Odivelas Sports Club: Odivelas boasts two recent victories—including a clean win versus Hurricane of Feathers—and notably defeated ZeroZone Gaming away from home. This suggests they're well-adapted, on a mini-streak, and taking care of mid- to lower-table competition consistently. They did lose to FlameHard, showing vulnerability, but overall recent form is superior.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Looking over the last three months:

• Gold Generation: Odivelas generates gold at 1814 GPM with a G@15 advantage (+684), while Nice Try lags at 1749 GPM and a negative early gold swing (-461). This trend flags clear early-game macro dominance for Odivelas.
• Objective Control: Odivelas is perfect on First Dragon (100%), outpaces Nice Try on First Baron (33% vs 25%), and edges out on First Blood too (33.3% to 25%).
• Team-fighting & Efficiency: Odivelas tallies 0.637 kills/min and boasts a positive K/D ratio (1.37). Nice Try struggles with 0.47 kills/min, suffers a poor K/D of 0.82, and lower overall champion damage.
• Nice Try Strengths: The Maine positive: a brief edge in First 5 Kills (50%). This is largely offset by subsequent control.

Recent form and stats both suggest Odivelas builds early leads, translates them to first objectives, and maintains above-average fight efficiency. Nice Try neither establishes early pressure nor reliably converts good starts into tangible map wins.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Match Winner – Twoway: Odivelas price (1.28) suggests ~78% implied probability. But form, early game dominance, and head-to-head/stat skew arguably make this a fair assessment; little value on either side. Nice Try at 3.3 implies a 30% shot – likely accurate for such a consistently struggling side.

• Map 1 – Total Kills (Various lines): Odivelas lands about 0.64 kills/min and Nice Try 0.47, equating to an expected 21–24 team kills in a roughly 33–35 minute game. Given past results and kill tempo, markets likely shade over:

  • Odivelas generally delivers lopsided victories with lower kill counts (fewer back-and-forth brawls), making ultra-high kill totals less likely. Using a safer line (Under 33.5 @ 1.92, fair if both teams continue lopsided play and Nice Try folds early).
  • Handicap pricing might be marginally off, but odds are nearly 50/50, giving little actionable edge.

• Handicaps: Stat differences are vast, but with underdog Nice Try showing occasional game competitiveness (large handicaps), books reflect this at 1.78 both ways for +/-10.5. Not sharp enough differential to extract edge.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Odivelas deserves firm favoritism per advanced stats, form, and map execution. However, the market has efficiently priced this contest, leaving scant value. If betting, watch the kill count markets closely – the Under 33.5 line offers slight value if trends continue (given efficient Odivelas victories and a low-performing Nice Try).

Written on May 4, 2025 3:49 PM