Nice Try - For The Win Esports

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The LPLOL 2025 Spring split continues with Nice Try taking on For The Win Esports on May 2nd. For The Win are one of the region’s key favorites, heavily priced to dispatch a struggling Nice Try side. With the regular season heating up, both teams are jockeying for crucial league points—but the bookmakers suggest there’s a gulf in class here. This preview breaks down where those odds might not match the underlying stats and form, potentially uncovering rare betting value in a lopsided matchup.

Team Form Overview

Nice Try limp into this match with a grim record: 1 win and 3 losses in their last four recorded matches, dropping games to FlameHard, GTZ Esports, and Hurricane of Feathers and edging Keypulse Esports in their lone triumph. The team has consistently struggled to find momentum.

On the other hand, For The Win Esports arrive with a notably better run. Recent form reads 2-1, including a clean win over Hurricane of Feathers and Keypulse Esports, with their only blemish being a loss to FlameHard. For The Win have routinely handled contests against weaker opposition, consolidating their reputation as a top tier.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

A look at the raw numbers from the last 3 months defines this matchup as a probable mismatch:

• For The Win Esports:

  • First Baron Rate: 50%
  • First Dragon Rate: 100%
  • Gold Per Minute: ⬆️ 1845
  • Gold Diff at 15 mins: ⬆️ +84
  • First Blood Rate: ⬆️ 100%
  • Kills/Death Ratio: ⬆️ 2.10
  • Champion Damage: ⬆️ 3039

• Nice Try:

  • First Baron Rate: 25%
  • First Dragon Rate: 25%
  • Gold Per Minute: 1749
  • Gold Diff at 15 mins: -461
  • First Blood Rate: 25%
  • Kills/Death Ratio: 0.83
  • Champion Damage: 2476

For The Win enjoy pronounced early-game advantages (perfect first dragon and first blood marks), dwarfed Nice Try on economy and teamfighting, and have more than double the K/D ratio. Nice Try, meanwhile, consistently play from behind.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Match Winner Odds: Nice Try @ 5.8, For The Win Esports @ 1.1

Given the above, For The Win accurately deserve their heavy favorite status—every indicator, from recent win rate to core objective stats, confirms they vastly outperform Nice Try. The implied probability for For The Win sits at roughly 90.9%. Nice Try’s 5.8 odds provide a 17.2% implied chance by the market.

From the objective data, Nice Try’s underlying win probability is likely well under even that 17%, given their -461 gold diff early, subpar K/D, and 0% success vs top-half teams in LPLOL form. Without evidence of improvement, new signings, or x-factors (which do not appear reflected in stat lines or recent form), even the long odds look fair or slightly generous, not undervalued.

Final Thoughts

For The Win Esports should comfortably convert their statistical dominance to a match victory. The gulf in class is backed by virtually every category of data: lane stats, kill control, early-game leads, and actual results. As a value-driven bettor, finding inefficiency is the play—here, though, the market has correctly hammered For The Win to a near-unbackable price, while offering little upside even with Nice Try’s ballooned odds. Unless substantial lineup or meta shocks occur pre-game, this is a match to skip for serious value-seekers.

Written on May 4, 2025 3:49 PM