KOI - SK Gaming

Analysis and statistics

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Match Context & Stakes

KOI meets SK Gaming in the LEC 2025 Spring, a fixture with clear playoff implications as teams fight for ranking and momentum heading into the split's latter stages. KOI are sizable favorites, with SK coming off a turbulent run, and the market leans heavily towards a one-sided result. A lopsided market also means it’s crucial to hunt for inefficiencies in specific betting props, not merely the main match outcome.

Team Form Overview

KOI Recent Form (Last 5)

• Win vs Fnatic (2-1)
• Loss vs Team Vitality (0-2)
• Win vs Team BDS (2-0)
• Win vs Team Heretics (2-0)
• Loss vs Karmine Corp (1-2) KOI has displayed momentum and stability, clinically dispatching mid-table opponents (BDS/Heretics). Their two recent losses reflect stumbling mainly against stronger or stylistically tough matchups. Against teams on SK’s level, KOI is typically clinical.

SK Gaming Recent Form (Last 5)

• Loss vs Rogue (1-2)
• Win vs GIANTX (2-0)
• Loss vs Karmine Corp (0-2)
• Loss vs Team BDS (0-2)
• Win vs Fnatic (2-0) SK has two wins but both are against teams trending downward (Fnatic's experimental lineups, GIANTX falter). More troubling: 0 map wins against BDS/KC, and only a single map claimed vs Rogue. Their negative map and kill differential is reflected in the eye test and data alike.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Early Game and Objective Control

• Gold Diff @ 15: KOI (+211.7) dwarfs SK (-1027.3). KOI wins early games with strong lane control, whereas SK frequently bleeds massive gold to opponents before midgame.
• First Blood Rate: KOI (61.9%) is considerably more aggressive and successful in getting early kills than SK (35.7%).
• First Dragon/Baron: KOI edges an advantage, secondarily reflected in tempo and map setups.

Team Fight Execution and Damage

• KOI's kills/death ratio (2.41) is almost double SK (1.32)—indicating KOI converts map leads with crisp fights.
• Kills Per Minute: KOI at 0.418 bests SK's 0.369, so expect KOI to play at a higher tempo and initiate more pickups around objectives.
• Damage numbers are similar (KOI 2390, SK 2483), but SK's comes largely in losing scenarios—high output with inefficient conversion (i.e., hitting but not finishing fights).

General Trends

KOI's stats paint a picture of decisive snowballing, whereas SK often falls behind and struggles to mount comebacks.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner

• Market: KOI @ 1.13, SK @ 5.8. Even if KOI's real win probability is closer to 84%, the edge is razor thin. No value at these extremes.

Map Handicap

• KOI -1.5 @ 1.52 (implied 65.8% win probability for 2-0) is shaded nearly perfectly to line. Given KOI's clean sweeps and SK's inability to contest better teams, a 2-0 is likelier than 65%—probabilistically, this should be closer to 1.38–1.42. There is marginal value, but not substantial.

Total Maps & Correct Score

• Under 2.5 @ 1.38 correlates with a 2-0 and seems marginally efficient; 2:0 @ 1.5 for KOI again is shaded low, but could be used if KOI speedruns (data points in this direction).

Props: First Blood, Kills, Baron

• KOI First Blood (any map) @ ~1.65 is fair but not deep value, matching their ~62% season split.
• First Baron on any map (KOI @ 1.38) just about mirrors data, suggesting market is sharp.
• Kills/Duration markets for KOI are about right, with KOI's average edges matching pricing.

Anything for The Big Dog?

• SK ML or +1.5 Map is an avoid; pregame data doesn't make a contestable value case.

Final Thoughts

KOI dramatically outclasses SK early and is clinical against the lower tier. The markets know it—KOI is priced at near auto-win in every fundamental market, and even the basic props (objectives, FB, barons) are assigned close to fair statistical probability. Only (mild) edge lies in KOI -1.5 maps at 1.52, but even this is thin; aggressive bettors or parlays seeking slight edges could consider it, but this is not a clear “must take” spot.

Coming in, no significant upsets or roster shocks are reported. All value in core markets is tightly capped; only slim edge—at best—on KOI sweeps, and no strong value in dog plays or long props. It's a sharp market—with KOI likely rolling 2-0, but at negligible positive expectation.

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Written on May 4, 2025 6:09 PM