KOI - Rogue

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The KOI vs Rogue matchup is a 2025 LEC Spring regular season clash set for May 12, 2025. KOI comes in jostling within the standings' upper-mid tier, while Rogue is searching for consistency in what’s largely been a bottom-half split. With playoff positioning and confidence at stake, both teams will be motivated, but KOI will see this as a must-convert, while Rogue fights for relevance.

Team Form Overview

KOI's Recent Form:

• Strong recent wins over GIANTX (2-1) and Fnatic (2-1) show KOI beating both lower-seeded and traditional heavyweights alike.
• Last five games: 4W - 1L, only dropping a series to revitalized Team Vitality.
• Three of those four wins were by 2-0 or 2-1, affirming both clean sweeps and clutch capacity.

Rogue's Recent Form:

• Mixed outcomes: recent win over SK Gaming (2-1), but losses to GIANTX (0-2), G2 Esports (0-2), and Fnatic (0-2).
• Just 2W in the last 5 series, and both victories came over either struggling or mid-pack teams.
• Routinely dropped 0-2 even to bottom four competition, confirming recurring performance issues.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Key figures last 3 months (LEC official stats):

• First Blood: Slight edge KOI (61.1%) vs Rogue (56.3%)
• First Baron: Surprisingly, Rogue has a minimally higher rate (37.5% vs KOI's 33.3%). However, Baron rates often favor late-game composure, while KOI's early aggression sets the tone for match flow.
• Gold per Minute: KOI leads at 1810 vs Rogue's 1730—KOI's macro is the more efficient.
• Gold Diff @ 15: Further highlights: KOI's -34.5 indicates nearly breaking even early, whereas Rogue lags significantly (-173.9), flagging for persistent poor early games.
• Kills/Deaths Ratio: KOI nearly doubles Rogue (1.97 vs 1.26 k/d)—pure fight effectiveness on KOI’s side.
• First 10/15 Kills Impact: KOI above 50% (55.5% 10K; 50% 15K). Rogue’s first 10 Kills sits just at 31%, dropping further for 15 Kills at only 18.7%. KOI’s ability to snowball into mid-to-late is vastly superior.
• Champion Damage: Rogue deals more damage per minute if games extend, fitting with some longer defeats, but damage stats alone are deceptive given kill disparity and less efficient map states.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Across all "Match Winner" and map-specific win markets, KOI's odds are extremely short (1.12 ML, ~90% implied) versus Rogue's 5.80 (17.2%). This accurately reflects true probability from performance stats—no edge on match outcomes.

• Heavy market favoritism also eliminates spread value: KOI -1.5 handicap sits at 1.52 (implying ~65%), exactly in line with series sweep likelihood from their stats (3/4 most recent best-of-3s won by KOI were sweeps or close).

• Underdog spreads and "Over 2.5 Maps" markets lack value. Rogue’s infrequent map wins against strong teams makes the 2.4 (+1.5 maps) and 2.8 (over 2.5 maps) odds poor value compared to database probability (<30% of Rogue series go 3 maps against favorites).

• Props such as “First Blood” or “First Dragon” slightly favor KOI in probability but offer no edge (~1.65 odds with 61% historical first blood rate = fair line).

Final Thoughts

Despite a statistically thorough breakdown, no value exists for this fixture. The books have KOI as a heavy favorite—justified via both form and deep stat lines—and correctly priced, while systemically inflated prices on Rogue don't surpass their true odds of results. Unless off-meta contextual changes emerge (emergency subs, dramatic meta shifts, late-breaking news), every classic risk/reward profile here trends toward fair or negative EV.

Written on May 10, 2025 3:54 PM