Nongshim Esports Academy - T1 Esports Academy

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The match between Nongshim Esports Academy and T1 Esports Academy takes place in the LCK CL 2025 Rounds 1-2 — one of the most competitive developmental leagues in Korean League of Legends. Both squads are fighting for a critical standing boost as the middle section of the split approaches, where every win is vital for playoff seeding and confidence cultivation for young talents.

Team Form Overview

• Nongshim Esports Academy's Last 5: 1 win, 4 losses (most recent matchups: Lost 1-2 to T1 Academy, absent notable streaks; only win over Dplus KIA CA, defeats included Freecs CA, Gen.G GA, and big upsets from FearX Yth).
• T1 Esports Academy's Last 5: 2 wins, 3 losses (including a recent 2-1 win over Nongshim, convincing 2-0 vs Gen.G GA, but slumps to DRX CA, Freecs CA, and BRION Challengers).

Importantly, T1 recently edge Nongshim in a direct encounter (2-1 on 28th April), showing situational upper hand when stakes were similar. Despite middling form overall, T1 boasts marginally more stability and momentum going into this key fixture.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

• Early Game Edge:

  • Nongshim show a massive first blood rate (69.2%) — league-leading, but only translate that red-hot start to first dragon 23% and first baron 26.9%. Gold difference at 15 mins is a solid +124.
  • T1 by contrast structure for macro: lower first blood (27.5%), but utterly outpaces objectives control (first dragon 57.5%, baron 47.5%), although gold diff at 15 is -250, exposing a risk of surrendering map pressure early before rebounding in later stages with their superior dragon/baron setups.

• Mid/Late Game Killing Efficiency:

  • KDA advantage to T1: kills-over-death 1.62 (slightly better than Nongshim at 1.54) and highest kills per minute.
  • While Nongshim rack more champion damage (2740 vs 2579), it's not translating to closing maps or snowballing leads, hinting at overstretched skirmishes or failed dives.

• Map Control:

  • T1's superior "first major objectives rate" (dragons, barons) should give them strong cross-map play depth should they withstand Nongshim's frequently aggressive starts.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

• Match Winner (T1 Esports Academy @ 1.65): Market fairly prices T1 as favorites after their recent h2h victory and their vastly better macro/stat profile late. That price (implied ~61%) feels almost spot-on.
• Nongshim Esports Academy @ 2.1: Book offers reasonable value for an underdog, but not enough given observable mid-late game weaknesses and poor closing/transition stats.
• Map Handicaps: T1 -1.5 @ 2.9 looks mildly enticing if you're high on their ability to convert leads, but recent form (series rarely ending 2-0) makes this a stretch.
• Maps Total/Correct Score Markets (@ 1.85 for over/under 2.5, and 2-1 to either side 3.3/3.8, 2-0 for T1 at 2.9):
  • With both teams splitting wins in most of their recent 5+ series and Nongshim being scrappy early, value leans to over 2.5 maps (at true coinflip odds, 1.85, despite most head-to-head plus recent matches involving map threes).

Final Thoughts

T1 Esports Academy are deserved favorites given their direct h2h win and macro objective stats, but they frequently bleed map ones to aggressive teams and Nongshim pack a dangerous first blood/early lead profile. Recent splits show these teams favor tight BO3s, not blowout 2-0s either way; as a result, market misprices the risk of seeing all three maps covered. For sharp bettors, Over 2.5 Maps at 1.85 presents the cleanest edge despite T1's slightly higher ceiling on fundamentals, given the current volatility and map-trading trends.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:21 PM