Dplus KIA - KT Rolster

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The clash between Dplus KIA and KT Rolster on May 7th at the LCK 2025 Rounds 1-2 is a pivotal one as both teams vie for strong early positioning in what is shaping up to be an exceptionally competitive split. Each squad comes in with its own set of expectations: Dplus KIA aiming to re-assert themselves among championship contenders, while KT Rolster seeks to prove their upside against established opposition. Historically, encounters between these teams have swung on both stability of macro play and ability to secure early objectives.

Team Form Overview

Dplus KIA

Recent form is mixed for Dplus KIA. Over the last five LCK fixtures, they’ve notched:

• Wins: vs DRX (2-1), DN Freecs (2-0)
• Losses: vs Hanwha Life Esports (1-2), T1 (1-2), Gen.G (1-2) Notably, their two losses came to current heavyweights (Gen.G, T1), both closely contested, suggesting resilience as well as higher-tier competitive viability. Then again, a slip versus Hanwha Life highlights inconsistency and possible vulnerabilities to aggressive early plays.

KT Rolster

KT Rolster are also on a patchy run:

• Wins: DN Freecs (2-0), FearX (2-1), DRX (2-0)
• Losses: Nhongshim RedForce (0-2), BRION (1-2) Both recent victories came against bottom-mid tier teams, while the stumbles versus RedForce and BRION raise red flags about their ceiling versus top-4 level competition.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Comparing the teams over the past three months:

Objective Control and Economy

• First Baron: Slight edge to Dplus KIA (41.9%) vs KT Rolster (33.3%)
• First Dragon: Dplus KIA at 54.8%, KT at 47.6%

Laning and Early Gold Metrics

• Gold Diff @ 15: Dplus KIA at +25, KT Rolster at a problematic -373
• Gold Per Minute: Advantage Dplus (1838.1) over KT (1764.8)

Snowball and Skirmish Ability

• First Blood/First 10 Kills: Dplus KIA at 51.6%/67.7%, KT lagging at 42.8%/33.3%
• Kills/Deaths: Dplus KIA shows strong discipline at 2.13 K:D compared to KT Rolster's 1.23 K:D
• Champion Damage: KT slightly higher (2615), indicating willingness to scrap even in losing situations—potential for counters through creative drafts/aggression.

Synopsis

• Across nearly every macro and micro metric (lane, skirmish, objective), Dplus KIA holds an edge, particularly in early tempos and snowball %s. KT Rolster struggles to stabilize in the first 15 minutes, as evidenced by their weak and negative average gold position.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner – Dplus KIA (1.35) / KT Rolster (3.1)

Implied probability for Dplus KIA is about 74%. Considering their statistical dominance and relative consistency (isolating games vs T1 and Gen.G), the pricing feels largely fair.

Handicap: Dplus KIA (-1.5) @ 2.15

This lineup triggers around 46% implied odds, effectively requiring a 2:0 sweep. Dplus KIA claim around 40-45% first barons and significant early game leverage, while KT Routinely loses map control by minute 15. Given Dplus’ competencies and KT's sub-30% rate at hitting key early map benchmarks, there may be a fractional value at 2.15, especially as KT’s wins largely come vs struggling lower-table teams.

Total Maps: Over 2.5 (2.05) / Under (1.68)

KT struggles to challenge upper echelon teams in full best-of-threes; Dplus KIA is frequently forced into deciders by top-four squads but close controls against weaker. No strong market inefficiency appears for totals with current rosters/form.

Map & Prop Markets

Most kill/race/inhibitor barons have heavy Dplus weighting, which aligns with frequency rates and gold tempo stats. The only market slightly mispriced may be Dplus KIA -1.5 on the series handicap.

Final Thoughts

Dplus KIA have quietly rebuilt into a solid macro team with powerful early game signifiers. KT Rolster, despite marginal improvements, lack the foundation to consistently push top squads unless Dplus KIA collapses or drafts poorly. Price leaks/edges are small; Dplus KIA -1.5 maps at 2.15 is justifiable value given data, but no other outcomes present genuinely actionable edges based on probabilities and current market quotes.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:23 PM