DN Freecs - KT Rolster

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

The upcoming LCK 2025 Rounds 1-2 fixture featuring DN Freecs vs KT Rolster (May 9) takes on significant early split importance, with both sides looking to rebound from challenging patches. The LCK remains fiercely competitive, so every map win is pivotal in securing favorable seeding later in the split.

Team Form Overview

DN Freecs: DN Freecs have experienced a tough streak, losing their last five matches including defeats to T1, FearX, Gen.G, and Dplus KIA. All losses illustrate consistent underperformance, many coming via sweep (0-2), highlighting fragilities in both draft flexibility and in-game execution.

KT Rolster: KT Rolster present a better, albeit inconsistent, record. Their last five matches include losses to Nongshim RedForce (0-2) and BRION (1-2), but solid series wins over DRX (2-0), DN Freecs themselves (2-0), and FearX (2-1). They've demonstrated a capacity to win both as favorites and slight underdogs, showing higher overall resilience compared to DN.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

With the last three months' data as foundation:

• Gold Per Minute & Diff @ 15: KT Rolster lead DN Freecs in GPM (1764.8 vs 1716.9) and show a softer gold deficit at minute 15 (-373 vs -731), reflecting a stronger macro and objective setup in early/midgame.
• Aggression Metrics: KT post higher kills per minute (0.40 vs 0.28) and a plus KDA (1.23 vs 0.67), while also holding significant advantages in champion damage output (2615.77 vs 2325.97).
• First Objectives: KT’s first Baron and first Dragon rates (33% and 48%) well outstrip DN’s (20% and 30%), indicating superior contest power and adaptation to the current meta.
• Fighting for Early Momentums: KT’s edge in First Blood, First 5/10/15 Kill rates further stress DN Freecs' slow starts, with KT exceeding DN across all these early indicators—especially in the critical first 10 Kills (33% for KT vs just 15% for DN).
• Map Head-to-Head: KT defeated DN convincingly (2-0) in their most recent encounter (April 20), reaffirming both the historical and present market expectation.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Market pricing—KT Rolster as match winners at 1.52 (implied probability ~66%)—reflects their objectively higher statistical and current performance base. While DN Freecs’ turnabout isn’t out of the question, there is little statistical signal in form or advanced metrics that DK have meaningful upset potential at 2.5 (implied probability ~40%).

• Map Handicap (DN +1.5 @ 1.45): Even with the cushion, books price the underdog protection conservatively given DN’s propensity for 0-2 losses, eroding obvious value.
• Total Maps Over 2.5 @ 1.9: Given DN’s lack of a single map won in the last five, the over appears optimistic at fairly restrained odds.
• First Baron/First Dragon/First Blood Dynamics: With KT dominating these early stats and rates generally below 2.0 across 1st Baron/Dragon markets, books cover these well.
• Correct Score Markets: KT 2-0 sits at 2.6, subtly higher than base match line and with enough data support to reflect a solid but hardly mispriced outcome.

No ancillary prop or side market leaps out as materially underpriced given how the statistical patterns align closely with market expectations.

Final Thoughts

KT Rolster brings a much higher baseline level both in long-term and immediate form. Market prices have correctly adjusted, displaying little inefficiency for punters to exploit. If anything, DN Freecs’ soft +1.5 lines are overly compressed due to their persistent 0-2 losses, and no convincingly mispriced props exist among early objective or map winner markets. There’s virtually no statistical case to fade KT or bet on DN without notable shifts in lineup or form that are not confirmed by any present on-record data.

Written on May 6, 2025 3:43 PM