Stellae Gaming - KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Stellae Gaming face off against KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas in the pivotal CD 2025 Split 1 tomorrow. Both organizations are eyeing top-half finishes, with KaBuM! aiming to cement their favorite status and Stellae looking for a breakout win that could supercharge their season. A result here could heavily influence playoff seeding going forward.

Team Form Overview

Stellae Gaming comes in on a 3-2 run in their last five, recently besting Keyd Stars Academy and Corinthians while dropping maps to Dopamina E-Sport and Los Grandes. Their wins skew toward competitive series, indicating grit and upset capability, but two straight home losses suggest inconsistency against better lineups.

KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas also clock a 3-2 record. They've beaten Dopamina, Flamengo eSports, and RATZ with commanding 2-0 victories. Their defeats, against Rise Gaming and Los Grandes, hint at minor turbulence but overall, KaBuM! consistently dispatch lower- and mid-table opponents decisively. Recent form underscores KaBuM!'s reputation as reliable front-runners.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Macro & Objective Control

• First Baron Rate: Stellae 60% vs. KaBuM! 47% — Stellae actually outpace KaBuM! here, pointing to robust late-game setups.
• First Dragon Rate: Stellae trail (40%) to KaBuM's (52.9%), suggesting KaBuM! is prioritizing and usually controlling drakes
• Gold per Minute / Gold Diff at 15: KaBuM! enjoy slightly more gold per minute (1851 vs. 1844) and a significant +420 advantage at 15 minutes, while Stellae often play from behind (-155).

Early Game Pressure/First Blood

• First Blood: Stellae (26.7%) vs. KaBuM! (58.8%) — direct evidence KaBuM! are much more explosive early
• First 5/10 Kills: Both even on first 5 kills (~60%), but KaBuM! edge out on first 10 kills (64.7% vs. Stellae's 73.3%) — surprisingly, Stellae often come back toward the mid-game.
• Kills/Deaths Efficiency: Stellae's 1.46 pales against KaBuM!’s 1.91 K/D ratio — a substantial disparity in fight execution/outcome.
• Damage Output: Both teams average high champion damage (~2600-2700), KaBuM! with the edge (2729)

Totality: KaBuM! exhibit better overall macro, early aggression, greater gold efficiency, and outperform Stellae in nearly every advanced metric outside First Baron and some mid-game scenarios. Stellae are scrappy and can win chaotic, mid-to-late fights, but fundamental stats heavily tilt toward KaBuM! for consistent best-of-three victories.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner odds:

• Stellae Gaming @ 2.80 (implied probability: ~35.7%)
• KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas @ 1.38 (implied: ~72.5%)

Maps 1, 2, 3 Winning Odds:

• Stellae steadily priced at ~2.4–2.3 per map (41.7–43.5% implied)
• KaBuM! favored 1.5–1.55 (66.7–64.5% implied)

Statistical Scaling:

• From raw recent form and team stats, KaBuM! should realistically win this at least 70% of the time (per K/D, early objectives, and economic metrics). Bookmaker odds nearly spot-on; KaBuM! are rightfully clear favorites, but the margin placed on Stellae's side is stiff.
• However, map dynamics offer a potential edge: Stellae’s high First Baron, and very competitive first-10-kill stats—even into stronger teams—raise their upset ceiling per single map. With odds around 2.4 on maps and their tendency to surge mid-game, the Map 1 Winner @ 2.4 on Stellae is the best case for value: early Bo3 chaos and prepped pocket strategies often show in initial maps, especially for underdogs.

Final Thoughts

Bookmaker odds for the series are well-calibrated; KaBuM are justified favorites based on both underlying numbers and recent form. However, Stellae Gaming’s mid-game stats and unique strengths around securing First Baron provide a viable angle for a map steal, especially the opening map where volatility is heightened. Punters hunting value should consider backing Stellae on Map 1 only—otherwise, market edges are slim across the rest of the board.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:13 PM