RED Academy - KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

This CD 2025 Split 1 clash between RED Academy and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas is set for May 12th. Both squads have performed strongly regionally, with KaBuM! entering as substantial favorites in the betting markets. Playoff implications and seeding are at stake, adding significant pressure to this contest.

Team Form Overview

RED Academy is riding a flawless streak, boasting five straight match wins—dominating over RATZ, Flamengo eSports, Los Grandes, Dopamina E-Sport, and Rise Gaming. Notably, all their victories came in clean sweeps (2-0 or 2-1). This consistent closing ability signals strong cohesion and confidence in best-of series.

KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas, in their last five matches, posted three wins and two losses. While they convincingly swept Dopamina E-Sport and Flamengo eSports, they stumbled against Rise Gaming and Los Grandes (both 1-2 losses). Momentum slightly favors RED Academy given their crisp, uninterrupted win streak.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Delving into three-month metrics:

• Objective Control:

  • First Baron: RED (56.25%), KaBuM! (47.05%)
  • First Dragon: RED (56.25%), KaBuM! (52.94%)
  • RED Academy edge both statistics, often gaining early map control and late-game scaling advantage.

• Early Game & Tempo:

  • First Blood Rate: RED (62.5%) vs. KaBuM! (58.8%)
  • First 5 Kills Rate: RED (68.75%) vs. KaBuM! (52.9%)
  • Gold Diff @ 15: RED (+435), KaBuM! (+420)
  • RED pulls ahead on almost every aggressive early metric—suggesting they strike first in many games and build leads early.

• Kills and Efficiency:

  • Kills/Min: RED (0.54), KaBuM! (0.48)
  • K/D (Kills/Deaths): RED (2.47), KaBuM! (1.91)
  • RED outfrag KaBuM! definitively, implying better trade management and closing assured leads.

• Raw Damage:

  • RED (2782). KaBuM! (2729) – marginal, but shows RED's lanes get more active throughput.

Statistically, RED Academy not only matches but sometimes bests KaBuM!—contradicting the significant odds gap suggested by the market.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

The market has KaBuM! as a pronounced favorite: 1.32 for match win, versus a chunky 3.10 underdog line for RED Academy.

Converting to implied probabilities:

• KaBuM!: 1.32 → 75.8% win probability
• RED Academy: 3.10 → 32.3% win probability

Yet, by all key team metrics (objective control, K/D, early game leads) and RED Academy's unbroken recent form, this should be much closer to a coinflip than the market suggests. Even by conservative estimate, RED Academy deserves a 40–45% chance here. With that, their true odds should be around 2.20–2.50, making 3.10 exceptional value.

On map-specific lines, RED's Map 1 and Map 2 lines both sit at 2.70 (approx 37% implied), again presenting similar — perhaps even more specialist — market inefficiency, especially given their fast starts and high first kill/first blood rates.

Final Thoughts

The market misprices the gulf, leaning far too heavily toward KaBuM! for what is, on form and stats, a close contest. RED Academy's kill/death stats, gold diff at 15, and sweeping momentum all cut into KaBuM!'s favoritism. Value exists—potentially strongly—on RED Academy moneyline and map picks. Conservative stake, but truly an edge here for value bettors.

Written on May 10, 2025 3:52 PM