RED Academy - KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

This CD 2025 Split 1 bout between RED Academy and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas is a crucial fixture as the teams fight for playoff positioning in one of Brazil’s most competitive League of Legends leagues. With the regular season winding down, closing games with a statement win could be pivotal for playoff seeding and momentum. KaBuM! enters as favorites per the markets, but both squads need results to assert dominance among the upper tier.

Team Form Overview

RED Academy: Current form is flawless—RED has won all of their last five matches, conceding only one map and largely sweeping opponents (2-0) including Rise Gaming, Flamengo eSports, Los Grandes, and two so-far for Dopamina and RATZ. The streak underscores their consistency, especially in multi-map series.

KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas: KaBuM! has three wins and two losses across the last five. Their victories also came in dominant 2-0 fashion (over Dopamina, Flamengo eSports, RATZ), but they stumbled against Rise Gaming (1-2 loss) and Los Grandes (0-2 loss). While KaBuM!'s wins are clear-cut, dropped series against playoff contenders raise questions about consistency versus superior opposition.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

A granular look at performance stats over the last three months reveals no overwhelming favorite, with both teams showcasing areas of strength:

• Early Game Domination: RED Academy holds higher rates for First Blood (62.5% vs 58.8%) and First 5 Kills (68.8% vs 52.9%), indicating stronger early aggression. KaBuM! edges First 10 Kills (64.7% to 56.2%), but RED is equal or ahead on every other opener, like First Baron (56.3% to 47.1%), First Dragon (56.3% to 52.9%), and especially gold difference at 15 minutes (+435 vs +420);
• Efficiency and Teamfighting: RED has a clear margin in kills per minute (0.54 vs 0.48), kills/death ratio (2.47 vs 1.91), and slightly higher damage per minute (2782 vs 2730). These figures highlight RED's edge in both farming gold and coming out ahead in mid and late-game skirmishes.
• Consistency: RED’s win streak and statistical superiority converge in metrics beyond single-series variance—making their underdog pricing questionable.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Markets favor KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas decisively:

• Match Winner: KaBuM! at 1.52 (~65.8% implied probability), RED at 2.35 (~42.6%)
• Map Winner Markets: KaBuM! range from 1.58 to 1.65 across Maps 1-3; RED ranges 2.2 to 2.1

However, historical and statistical evidence puts RED much closer; their win streak, combined with their edge across all-opener stats and kill ratios, suggests the real probability is much closer to break-even—potentially even 50/50. This puts the market's pricing on RED in value territory, even more so on single-map bets where variance can be even higher.

Key Point: No major public roster changes or utility shifts have been noted. Map veto history aligns with classic Brazil meta pools, offering no glaring mechanism for KaBuM! dominance.

Final Thoughts

The market materially underrates RED Academy's strong recent series, well-rounded early-to-late game stats, and unbroken form. While KaBuM! is a stalwart opponent, pricing RED as a sizable underdog neither matches recent results nor statistical fundamentals. There's legitimate value taking RED both outright and on individual maps at current prices.

Written on May 5, 2025 3:48 PM