RATZ - Flamengo eSports

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Both RATZ and Flamengo eSports face off in the ongoing CD 2025 Split 1. With only a few rounds left in the Swiss stage, each match result weighs heavily on teams aiming for playoffs. Flamengo eSports, favored here, aim to cement their spot in the top echelon, while RATZ need a surprise win to stay playoff-relevant and break their trend of inconsistency.

Team Form Overview

RATZ Recent Form:

• Last 5: Win-Loss pattern yields only 2 wins and 3 losses
• Both wins against lower-ranked sides (Corinthians, Rise Gaming)
• Suffered 2-0 shutout defeats against RED Academy, KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas, and Los Grandes
• Their recent struggles focus more on lack of early-game control, as all losses are clean sweeps indicating little post-early-game comeback ability

Flamengo eSports Recent Form:

• Also 2 wins and 3 losses last 5; but all losses were 0-2 temporal sweeps
• Wins are over Rise Gaming (2-1) and less relevant bottom-side opposition
• Losses are largely against similarly ranked opponents (Stellae Gaming, RED Academy, KaBuM!, Keyd Stars Academy)
• Like RATZ, they're struggling to impose midgame leads, but look smoother in laning versus peers

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Early Game Control:

• Both sides show a negative gold differential at 15m, with RATZ at -800 and Flamengo ~-520.
• Neither side consistently claims first Baron — 38.5% for RATZ, 33.3% for FLA — but Flamengo have a material edge in first Bloods (66.7% vs. 38.5%) and Dragons (53.3% vs 30.7%).

Team Fighting & DPS:

• Kill/death (K/D) efficiency is where Flamengo shine: 2.42 K/D vs. just 1.13 for RATZ— suggesting much cleaner mid-late game.
• Kills/min and champion damage are higher for Flamengo (0.415 KPM vs. 0.352; 2591 DPM vs 2398), which supports this edge when tempo does break down from jungle skirmishes onward.

Map-Specific Trends (if available via form):

• There's no substantial hint that RATZ are perilous on any map-starter, nor do recent series wins indicate hidden map/side advantages.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match & Map Winner Odds:

• Flamengo eSports veers heavily to favorite: most markets here have Flamengo at 1.42 (implied win ~70%) while RATZ are given 2.7 (implied win ~37%)
• Looking at every major performance metric — first blood, K/D, overall damage — Flamengo have a real statistical edge. However, their negative gold diff @15 shows they frequently still play from behind and must stabilize from rough early games, which makes the -225/-250 moneylines potentially a tad generous by bookies.

RATZ as Underdogs:

• While RATZ are statistically inferior in nearly all primary metrics and are particularly soft in the early game versus Flamengo's high FB% and kill rates, they have shown occasional bounce in easier matchups.
• However, their form and metrics do not suggest a real chance of conversion higher than ~25-30%, offering little true value even at 2.7 odds.

Map Winners:

• Odds are tightly clustered between 2.2 and 2.4 on RATZ for specific maps; still not quite value given overall struggles and lack of map-specific bounce or upsets versus even mid-table sides recently.

Final Thoughts

Neither team comes in blazing; if Flamengo avoid disastrous early-game mistakes they should reliably handle RATZ in both map and series outcomes. No market, match or map, lines up for a value bet — Flamengo's edge is Justified, and RATZ's odds do not compensate for their clear disadvantages according to form and stats. This series is accurately lined and doesn't warrant a speculative dog shot.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:13 PM