Keyd Stars Academy - Los Grandes

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Keyd Stars Academy faces off against Los Grandes in the CD 2025 Split 1, a significant domestic brawl which impacts playoff seeding and potential momentum swings for both squads as the split ramps toward its latter stages. With tightly packed standings and both teams carrying positive records, every map and series win here is a potential tiebreaker down the line.

Team Form Overview

Keyd Stars Academy enter this clash in impressive form having secured four wins in their last five (beating RATZ, Dopamina E-Sport, Rise Gaming, and Flamengo eSports), only faltering against Stellae Gaming in a 1-2 defeat. The streak boosts morale and signals strong adaptation in best-of-series play. Keyd has consistently converted dominant scorelines, dropping just a single map outside of their loss.

Los Grandes hold a comparably solid track record, winning over Corinthians, KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas, and Stellae Gaming. Their lone miss was a 1-2 loss to RED Academy. Notably, their victories have at times come against weaker or mid-table opposition, but decisive wins reinforce their capacity to punish mistakes and snowball advantages.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Looking at the past three months:

• Early Game Handling: Keyd edges Los Grandes slightly in early control. First Baron, Dragon, and Blood rates are all marginally in their favor (c. 53% across metrics vs ~44-50% for Los Grandes). Gold difference at 15 for Keyd (+770) underlines more dominant early-game executions compared to Los Grandes (+675).
• Teamfight & Objective Conversions: Keyd's 2.13 kill/death ratio is just behind Los Grandes’ 2.17 (practically even in teamfight efficiency). Keyd does, however, boast significantly higher kills per minute (0.51 vs 0.47) and greater champion damage (2735 to 2473), hinting at a more aggressive skirmishing approach.
• Mid-Game Power: In rates for hitting 10 and 15 kills first, Keyd is very competitive: first 10 kills (58.8% vs 62.5%), first 15 kills (70.6% for Keyd, 62.5% for Los Grandes).
• Map-by-Map: Both teams’ strengths by individual map are reflected in the books' odds, which present consistently short prices for Los Grandes, but with Keyd Stars never a clear outsider (2.05-2.10)—reflective of balanced volatility in outcomes.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner - Twoway

• Odds: Keyd Stars Academy @ 2.10 | Los Grandes @ 1.65
• Book-implied Probability: Keyd ~47.6% | Los Grandes ~60.6%

Given recent form, statistical parity in early/mid-game objectives, and only a minor edge for Los Grandes in select stats, Keyd Stars Academy appear undervalued. Their gold diff at 15 and kills per minute rate both show they start well and are capable of high-impact skirmish play. With recent matchup success and the small difference in power metrics between teams, fair odds look closer to 1.85–1.90 on Keyd—translating to a rough 52–54% win expectancy, well ahead of the implied 47.6% from the book.

Map Winner Markets

Across all three potential maps, Keyd Stars is priced between 1.92 and 2.05, echoing the full-match lines. Given Keyd's solid map win rate and aggressive mid-game profiles, isolated map winners present only minor value opportunities relative to the best bet, the full match winner market.

Final Thoughts

This matchup reads much tighter than the current prices suggest. With comparable late-game teamfighting power, slightly superior early objectives, and excellent recent series for Keyd Stars Academy, the underdog odds present clear value. Unless notable late roster/patch changes break, Keyd Stars Academy to win the match stands out as the sharp play.

Written on May 4, 2025 6:18 PM