Keyd Stars Academy - Corinthians

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

CD 2025 Split 1 sees Keyd Stars Academy face Corinthians in a high-stakes best-of-three. Both teams are aiming for strong seeding, but Keyd enters as the clear favorite—both in bookmaking odds and season context. This matchup could have key playoff repercussions, and both sides need momentum going into the later stages.

Team Form Overview

Keyd Stars Academy are in commanding form, winning 4 of their last 5—recent 2-0 victories over RATZ, Dopamina E-Sport, Rise Gaming, and Flamengo eSports show strong BO3 consistency. The only stumble was a tight 1-2 against Stellae Gaming, suggesting that while not invulnerable, their baseline performance is high.

Corinthians’ last five are concerning, with only a single win (2-1 vs Rise Gaming), and four losses—two of which are 0-2 defeats against Los Grandes and RATZ. Their lone win over Dopamina E-Sport was hard-fought, but generally, this squad struggles to convert against upper/mid table opposition.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

Keyd Stars Academy dominates the metrics:

• Early Game: Their First Baron / Dragon / Blood rates (~53%) underscore a solid handle on neutrals and snowballing, further strengthened by a massive +770 gold diff at 15min.
• Mid/Late Game: Their first 10/15 kills rates (59%/71%) put them as agents of early-to-mid pressure; kills per minute (0.51) and K/D (2.14) reflect efficient execution with favorable trades across all lanes.
• Macro: Their GPM is 1908 (best-in-class for this league segment), while champion damage is also league-leading.

Corinthians by contrast:

• Early neutrals: Great first dragon (88%), indicating some early lane priority, but weak first baron (41%) and blood (47%) numbers indicate struggles transferring those advantages.
• Mid/Late: Negative gold at 15 (-261), poor K/D (1.30), and first 10/15 kills percentages at 35% & 41%. They hemorrhage leads post-early game and struggle to snowball even when ahead on dragons.

Keyd’s all-phase superiority signals a robust matchup, especially in closing games methodically once ahead—a big factor for BO3 win probability.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner (Keyd Stars Academy: 1.38 / Corinthians: 2.8)

Bookies are correctly pricing Keyd as strong favorites. Implied probability (Keyd): 72.5%. Model/data suggest actual win probability is even higher (conservative estimate: 80–85%) given dominant stats and momentum. There is modest value in Keyd.

Map 1/2 Winner (Keyd Stars Academy: 1.48)

Given Keyd’s map win streaks and ability to secure early leads (huge gold diff, first objective successes), their probability of taking each map is well above the 67% benchmark implied by these odds. Corinthians’ inability to convert even when snagging early dragons inflates Keyd map-specific chances.

Map 3 Winner (Keyd Stars Academy: 1.52)

Marginally less value, but if the series goes the distance the data strongly favors Keyd’s depth and late-series stamina.

Corinthians

Not enough evidence or statistical backing to warrant a value play—even at 2.8 or above. They underperform relative to odds.

Final Thoughts

Keyd Stars Academy are decisively favored, both on paper and in recent performance. While bookies reflect this, small inefficiencies exist in the match and map winner odds that can be capitalized upon, particularly in BO3 settings and map underlights. There is no value in Corinthians unless very unexpected information emerges pre-match—all justification rests with Keyd in this spot.

Written on May 10, 2025 3:59 PM