Keyd Stars Academy - Corinthians

Analysis and statistics

Match Context & Stakes

Keyd Stars Academy faces Corinthians in the CD 2025 Split 1 on May 7—a high-stakes matchup in Brazil's robust Challenger circuit. With playoff positioning and crucial league points on the line, both teams cannot afford a slip, with Keyd likely trying to solidify a playoff berth while Corinthians are fighting to reverse a downward spiral.

Team Form Overview

Keyd Stars Academy showcase a string of convincing results, winning 4 out of their last 5 matches, all with a clean 2-0 sweep except a single close 1-2 loss to mid-table Stellae Gaming. Wins against solid squads like RATZ and Flamengo eSports signal a roster in strong form and synergizing well under pressure.

Corinthians, conversely, have only secured two wins in their last five, with a particularly punishing streak—three straight losses versus Los Grandes, Stellae Gaming, and RATZ. Their two wins date back further and were both against lower-mid table sides in Rise Gaming and Flamengo eSports. Recent head-to-head records show Keyd as the more dominant squad in both performance and morale.

Stat-Based Matchup Analysis

• Early Game Strength: Keyd's 52.9% First Blood & Baron share coupled with a massive +770 gold difference at 15 minutes contrasts sharply with Corinthians' 50% First Blood, weak 35.7% First Baron, and a -175 gold deficit at 15 minutes. This signals a consistent early-game lead translating into stronger map control and objective setups for Keyd Stars Academy.

• Mid-Late Conversion: Keyd far exceeds Corinthians in first10 kills (58.8% vs. 28.6%) and first15 kills (70.6% vs. 35.7%), paired with a commanding 2.13 kill/death ratio compared to 1.17 from Corinthians. Keyd average 0.51 kills per minute versus just 0.37 for Corinthians, showing a persistent tempo advantage.

• Objective Control: Corinthians boast a surprisingly high first dragon rate (85.7%), potentially reflecting strong early lane coordination—but it has not translated into more match wins, likely due to lackluster teamfighting or macro, as reflected in their poor kill participation and gold figures.

Conclusion: Statistically and in recent form, Keyd are controlling games from early leads, snowballing through kills, gold, and objectives—roles where Corinthians critically underperform.

Market Evaluation & Betting Edges

Match Winner - Twoway odds:

• Keyd Stars Academy 1.42 (~70.4% implied chance)
• Corinthians 2.70 (~37% implied chance)

Implied odds undersell the statistical gap between these lineups:

• Keyd's dominance across win rates, early gold, kills/deaths, and recent results support a true probability closer to 75%-80% for series victory. Market pricing lets us exploit the difference between implied (~70%) and true odds (~77%).

Map Lines:

• Keyd Stars Academy are listed at 1.5-1.58 to win each map (62%-66% implied probability). Especially early, Keyd's snowball potential and objective dominance warrant projecting them >70% likely to take maps versus any team with Corinthians-like statistics. Map1 and Map2 odds in particular are slightly conservative—look for value especially if Corinthians start slow (as they often do).

Final Thoughts

Keyd Stars Academy bring proven synergy, superior macro, and killer instinct from early-to-late. Corinthians’ lone statistical strong point—First Dragon—is heavily outweighed by deficits everywhere else. So long as Keyd doesn’t fumble lane swaps or draft, this market mid-line undervalues a genuine favorite. Keyd at -1.5 map handicap would push toward strong value, though that’s not offered presently. At these prices, a multi-map sweep or series winner for Keyd should be considered strong value.

Written on May 5, 2025 3:49 PM